World Politics · resolved market
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x876c137bd74bde1ffaccd26e29078355a63c16d1f8182f39cb4bb03459dfb1e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $984,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $757,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $984,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7571…1e8ebacked No | 56c | 110,128$61,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,456.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…05a7backed Yes | 44c | 110,128$48,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,456.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…1f7fbacked No | 46c | 91,733$42,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,535.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…f4e4backed Yes | 54c | 91,733$49,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,535.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac2…9a73backed No | 46c | 54,800$25,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,592 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…ef68backed Yes | 54c | 54,800$29,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,592 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 46,206$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f8…f5c3backed Yes | 0c | 32,830$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 22,023$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 18,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,691$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 0c | 13,555$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 10,183$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf98…f72abacked Yes | 1c | 6,236$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,549$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 1c | 4,058$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 39c | 3,819$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…ae35backed Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 63c | 3,460$2,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.31 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…6596backed Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed No | 55c | 2,111$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 49c | 1,620$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.93 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 41c | 1,563$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.18 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 77c | 1,365$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.64 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,262$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 59c | 1,181$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.17 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 34c | 1,041$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.72 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 35c | 1,021$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.69 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 59c | 951.99$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.41 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 9c | 888$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 46c | 779$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.7 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 34c | 655.01$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 29c | 615.56$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 56c | 588.79$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.09 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 47c | 537.42$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.41 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed No | 44c | 503.83$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…a8bbbacked Yes | 3c | 499.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 65c | 450$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 55c | 450$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.5 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 41c | 408.9$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 48c | 400$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked Yes | 62c | 370$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464b…7454backed No | 47c | 369$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 61c | 335.02$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…aa64backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…b1afbacked No | 43c | 299.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed No | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 27c | 282$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 63c | 250.3$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 54c | 245.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 230.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…6b9ebacked Yes | 55c | 222$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 65c | 203.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.14 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…57b2backed Yes | 58c | 199$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 33c | 193.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…aa82backed No | 46c | 186$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 63c | 183.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 163.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 45c | 157.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 150.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…995ebacked Yes | 45c | 119.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 111.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…b703backed No | 44c | 98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 63c | 86.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…c026backed No | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3574…8ba0backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…2584backed No | 47c | 64.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 35c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…88e1backed Yes | 58c | 54.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…4bebbacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…0a9ebacked No | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…6582backed No | 54c | 51.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 68c | 50.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…2861backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…c96dbacked No | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436d…2066backed Yes | 64c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 53c | 42.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…6106backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…6ed7backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1162…492dbacked Yes | 47c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c54…e99cbacked No | 56c | 27.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…c1f2backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…5c38backed Yes | 48c | 24.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?this page
- Will the next Pope be from Africa?No won
- Will the next Pope be from Asia?No won
- Will the next Pope be from Europe?No won
- Will the next Pope be from North America?Yes won
- Will the next Pope be from Oceania?No won
- Will the next Pope be from South America?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.