TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe7b7…92ce

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
281
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 62 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST5942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 59 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$54.5
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$12.95
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$18
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+143%+$76.5
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+115.6%+$123.3
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$133.6
Will Tim Walz announce Senate run before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.46
Will Barack Obama be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.5
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
The 'Bill' Epstein Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.5
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will Trump cut military spending?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+116.1%+$59.1
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
TikTok sale announced before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.1
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.9
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Will Trump end USAID in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Showing 25 of 59 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST5822.4%13 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+180.7%+$122.31
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$15.2
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+274.5%+$36.65
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.32
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.8
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+209.6%+$33.85
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.3
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 25–May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.5
Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.85
Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$39
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+512.2%+$125.5
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.31
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+566.6%+$127.49
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.2
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+51.1%+$13.52
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST3537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$23.6
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+143.9%+$17.7
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$428.08
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,108.49
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+269%+$145.8
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$425.68
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+85.5%+$276.59
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$272.9
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.5
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.8
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.5
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.15
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.2
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.95
Will no new pope be elected in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$130.9
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+113.5%+$77.1
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.4
Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+142.3%+$111.6
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$28
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$225
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$30.5
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.79
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.5
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$779.9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$704Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$704.39
Will Trump visit Russia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.5
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$66
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.29
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.19
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$785Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$785.2
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.5
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+26%+$16.49
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+56.6%+$54.19
Will the US sanction Russia before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+89.6%+$56.7
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+37.7%+$26.17
Trump announces cutting all military aid to Ukraine aid before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+40.5%+$15.34
Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+83.1%+$190.65
Trump cuts Ukraine aid before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+100%+$45
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+192.8%+$434.57
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+117.8%+$324.47
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+39.6%+$455.26
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,095.31
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$186.99
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.46
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.45
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$263.56
Will Norman Powell win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.25
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.7
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$5,352Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+58.3%+$3,118.52
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+38.8%+$15.1
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.33
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.2
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$70.5
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$73.1
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+156.1%+$44.69
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+440.5%+$97.8
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.35
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.1
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$76.02
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$352.81
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+98%+$252.38
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$21.8
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$29.6
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$78.97
Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20.2
Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+100.3%+$112.47
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,658Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+75%+$2,743.11
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$593.68
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST+68.6%+$170.9
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST+45.5%+$207.95
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$13.3
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$68.39
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST1090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+71.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$19.22
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+78.6%+$52.7
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+65.7%+$44.91
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+147.5%+$29.8
Will Cynthia Lummis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+39.3%+$101.5
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+92.7%+$28.86
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+120%+$278.2
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+54.6%+$10.6
Will Joni Ernst vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+39%+$78.58
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+177.8%+$224
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10.05
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+49.9%+$160.66
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$76.3
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+164.4%+$341.98
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$78.6
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40.35
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$614Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+56.5%+$346.34
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$137.9
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+87.1%+$102.42
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+82.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-26.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+121.3%+$230.19
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$418.19
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.61
All 3 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.42
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$25.55
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+81.8%+$67.5
All 3 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST+64.7%+$137.49
Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$12.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.1
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$160.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$320.97
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+88.2%+$104.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$121.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.