Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67bae9ed6f0ad3b61313de828c5eb6212f878869e23a4893023d72a063c69b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 16,257$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.12 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 13,945$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.79 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,090$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…e6e5backed Yes | 7c | 10,830$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,223$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 7,216$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.5 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 6,282$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 5c | 6,254$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.1 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 10c | 4,737$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.68 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 1c | 3,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 10c | 3,658$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.98 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 12c | 2,330$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 10c | 2,291$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.68 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e7…8883backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,561$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6392…f797backed Yes | 10c | 1,531$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 7c | 1,363$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 9c | 1,362$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…f30cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,233$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,108$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 9c | 1,009$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…b95fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62f…990bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c63abacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d67…4e16backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 12c | 978.46$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2125…19b8backed Yes | 8c | 949.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 937.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 11c | 858.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…4ad0backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 11c | 817.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 5c | 751.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes | 11c | 716.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 2c | 715.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 10c | 613.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 13c | 570.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…1e6cbacked Yes | 9c | 562.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 8c | 561.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7060…29a7backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…e608backed Yes | 6c | 550$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 9c | 537.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 9c | 525$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 12c | 525$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 479.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 9c | 474.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…30b7backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 10c | 396.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 391.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 8c | 362.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 8c | 331.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 8c | 300.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 9c | 266$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…8156backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 8c | 215.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…226ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…fd85backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 7c | 178.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…d34bbacked Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…8018backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…c821backed Yes | 18c | 141.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 9c | 136$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4212…fe24backed Yes | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…f34cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd18…d344backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bb…559ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c1…d330backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…2d3fbacked Yes | 12c | 95.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…3116backed Yes | 12c | 83.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.