Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86fb692d46222a843e5b29a9ce74ea98fb5418bd3ddd70beb02acca036459031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $720,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $442,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $720,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 347 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 45,757$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 13c | 45,226$5,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,785.84 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 2c | 36,786$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.02 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 14c | 28,707$4,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,119.55 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 2c | 17,571$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.31 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 14,322$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.84 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 22c | 13,952$3,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.33 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 12c | 13,919$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.43 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 18c | 13,351$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.42 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 15c | 11,604$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.53 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed No | 77c | 11,000$8,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565.01 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 34c | 10,930$3,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,689.39 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bec…5d59backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…e6e5backed Yes | 24c | 9,853$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370.41 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 11c | 9,595$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.07 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5484backed Yes | 6c | 6,500$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…d181backed Yes | 8c | 6,000$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.68 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…8008backed Yes | 6c | 6,000$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…29aebacked Yes | 6c | 6,000$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…e564backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.79 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 22c | 5,969$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.08 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 15c | 5,523$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.07 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,373$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.13 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 8c | 5,091$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.29 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 23c | 5,083$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 21c | 4,900$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.58 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 24c | 4,710$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.44 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f5…01e5backed Yes | 52c | 4,639$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 24c | 4,451$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.06 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 15c | 3,923$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.76 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed No | 74c | 3,595$2,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 14c | 3,454$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 15c | 3,026$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.21 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 34c | 3,011$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.81 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 3c | 2,993$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 11c | 2,957$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 16c | 2,868$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.43 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…1e6cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,853$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,532$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.93 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 10c | 2,525$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,477$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.51 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 10c | 2,445$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,402$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.31 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 8c | 2,362$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 22c | 2,015$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.73 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 10c | 2,005$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed No | 79c | 1,909$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.88 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 11c | 1,887$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…3660backed Yes | 11c | 1,816$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.71 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,782$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.91 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 8c | 1,776$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e7…8883backed Yes | 11c | 1,700$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 11c | 1,666$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.83 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 11c | 1,608$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…30b7backed Yes | 24c | 1,564$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.18 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c1…20b5backed Yes | 14c | 1,541$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 37c | 1,502$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.26 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 3c | 1,444$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 8c | 1,350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6392…f797backed Yes | 11c | 1,325$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 15c | 1,284$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeef…d4fbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,267$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,229$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.03 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 18c | 1,204$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 12c | 1,150$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7060…29a7backed Yes | 14c | 1,150$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…8a53backed Yes | 14c | 1,132$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.13 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 31c | 1,130$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.47 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,127$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked No | 77c | 1,114$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…9900backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 6c | 1,065$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…4664backed Yes | 19c | 1,059$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,056$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…7a4bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,026$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 32c | 1,012$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.61 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…2829backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 51c | 973.14$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 10c | 971.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 10c | 968.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…4021backed Yes | 21c | 934.87$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 20c | 934.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.67 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…dfb3backed Yes | 7c | 900$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 23c | 898.85$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 16c | 884.07$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 16c | 881.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…f30cbacked Yes | 12c | 875$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.