Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe667de9434da5c1fa9915f88ba82fc957e05c5f19624648d96856a3d36799d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,013,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $577,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,013,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 64,221$6,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,344.23 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 12c | 38,225$4,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,553.71 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 16c | 36,408$5,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,764.51 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 30,639$2,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.92 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…b1bebacked Yes | 1c | 21,383$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 3c | 20,105$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.64 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 17,143$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.38 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 17,089$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.87 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 18c | 14,441$2,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,552.42 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 16c | 13,475$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.27 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 18c | 12,630$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.43 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…4d05backed Yes | 0c | 11,070$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 5c | 10,982$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.75 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…cc01backed Yes | 0c | 10,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 13c | 10,094$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.34 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…5239backed Yes | 6c | 10,003$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b68…2095backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…e6e5backed Yes | 1c | 9,505$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 8c | 9,117$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.06 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 1c | 8,630$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 23c | 8,276$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.74 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 2c | 7,773$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…997dbacked Yes | 16c | 7,500$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 7,044$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…5795backed Yes | 19c | 7,000$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 32c | 6,164$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.69 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 11c | 6,090$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 11c | 5,504$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.5 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 23c | 5,484$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.97 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 8c | 4,875$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.97 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 19c | 4,662$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.52 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 4,023$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.05 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 10c | 4,000$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.4 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…c588backed Yes | 39c | 3,855$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 5c | 3,815$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 17c | 3,636$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.32 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 3,631$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.15 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 19c | 3,498$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.56 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 6c | 3,358$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.85 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…3cefbacked Yes | 3c | 3,355$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…0307backed Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…b83cbacked Yes | 31c | 3,280$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…06a8backed Yes | 3c | 2,971$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,939$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.23 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked Yes | 8c | 2,869$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 15c | 2,835$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.16 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…dfb3backed Yes | 8c | 2,800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,718$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.49 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 22c | 2,656$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.64 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Yes | 5c | 2,593$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…602cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,573$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 6c | 2,328$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 20c | 2,310$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.29 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 8c | 2,214$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.76 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 6c | 2,080$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 10c | 2,031$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.49 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,956$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.93 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 27c | 1,924$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.94 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 3c | 1,919$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e0…b2b4backed Yes | 14c | 1,860$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 24c | 1,793$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.05 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…8a53backed Yes | 24c | 1,719$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.42 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…755dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,704$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 1,701$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 19c | 1,646$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.49 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 2c | 1,588$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 74c | 1,581$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,574$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…b904backed Yes | 30c | 1,569$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.21 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,559$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.69 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Yes | 26c | 1,531$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.38 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 12c | 1,507$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 21c | 1,487$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…21e4backed Yes | 4c | 1,419$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c4…001dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,415$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,393$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,378$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 22c | 1,350$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.52 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 9c | 1,350$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd99…df91backed Yes | 25c | 1,318$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 6c | 1,307$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 12c | 1,270$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 1,264$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,262$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.91 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,252$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6392…f797backed Yes | 8c | 1,188$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…e608backed Yes | 12c | 1,184$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.15 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,142$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.3 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 14c | 1,135$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 15c | 1,130$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 24c | 1,122$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,111$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.64 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801c…a025backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.