Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42c46dd7bafd2449229183f648935edaeeef671fbb2ad527441e2621fd70f4d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1344…e6e5backed Yes | 4c | 14,410$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.46 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 13,849$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.01 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 13,735$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 10,835$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.87 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 0c | 10,365$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 2c | 6,563$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 1c | 4,851$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,558$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 1c | 4,543$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 3,433$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…dfabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,403$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 3c | 2,994$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,945$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 1c | 1,828$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 4c | 1,400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 3c | 1,181$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c63abacked Yes | 2c | 942.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 3c | 736.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 664.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 5c | 587.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 559$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…f30cbacked Yes | 5c | 542.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 2c | 538.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 2c | 521.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 2c | 499.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 5c | 440.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…e0fcbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 379.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…a832backed Yes | 3c | 330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee80…b11cbacked Yes | 4c | 309$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 4c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 3c | 297.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…b08ebacked Yes | 4c | 288$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.