Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f08bc831d9898043a6925642c9994abc517e4b090adffc2250d68f880849999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $672,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $589,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $672,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 439 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 42c | 25,881$10,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,997.82 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 30c | 24,157$7,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,812.36 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 50c | 22,375$11,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,141 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…e6e5backed Yes | 22c | 13,204$2,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,246.97 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 11,830$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,147.1 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 33c | 10,796$3,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,270.09 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 19c | 9,444$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,650.77 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 66c | 8,364$5,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.15 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked No | 4c | 8,126$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.64 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed No | 63c | 8,070$5,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,115.65 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 32c | 7,224$2,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,897.72 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 31c | 7,148$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,949.32 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 31c | 6,624$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,550.57 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 15c | 6,243$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,279.42 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 44c | 6,073$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.16 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 79c | 6,000$4,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…2035backed Yes | 16c | 5,667$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,754.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 32c | 5,130$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,492.78 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 19c | 4,517$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,654.07 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 16c | 4,241$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,560.92 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 50c | 4,193$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.02 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.99 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 32c | 3,981$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.34 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 37c | 3,970$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.24 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,790 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,967$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.37 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 28c | 2,890$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.05 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…e608backed Yes | 14c | 2,824$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.02 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 61c | 2,721$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.34 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 23c | 2,676$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…f44fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 33c | 2,442$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.43 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 23c | 2,377$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.75 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 77c | 2,325$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.99 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45f5…01e5backed Yes | 42c | 2,321$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…2c6fbacked No | 1c | 2,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 54c | 2,111$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.26 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…f26bbacked Yes | 49c | 2,042$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 20c | 2,010$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.75 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +629.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.94 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 1,992$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.33 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 68c | 1,977$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.15 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…f30cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,742$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.67 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 34c | 1,741$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed No | 35c | 1,729$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.99 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…3cefbacked Yes | 35c | 1,721$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…1aefbacked Yes | 10c | 1,684$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.43 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,684$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.2 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd7…1e98backed No | 72c | 1,678$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 16c | 1,663$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.76 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 9c | 1,641$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.2 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 21c | 1,625$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.15 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 12c | 1,600$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 43c | 1,595$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.04 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…06a8backed Yes | 32c | 1,572$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 21c | 1,559$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.07 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 1,538$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.41 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.99 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 14c | 1,485$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 24c | 1,477$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.12 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…602cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,476$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 75c | 1,455$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.87 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 79c | 1,394$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.47 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…1e6cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,386$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 43c | 1,375$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.76 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed No | 23c | 1,298$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.6 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 46c | 1,284$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.43 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 19c | 1,269$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.73 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…a8b6backed Yes | 69c | 1,256$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…b1d3backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.98 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 47c | 1,250$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,218$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 59c | 1,200$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…4664backed Yes | 15c | 1,200$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…7a4bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,181$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be7…47bebacked No | 2c | 1,178$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,119$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.67 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801c…a025backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.11 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,101$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 43c | 1,083$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 75c | 1,077$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.23 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,040$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.18 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 80c | 1,038$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.59 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,038$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.14 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,029$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.74 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 6c | 1,011$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.34 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 12c | 1,005$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.3 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.01 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed No | 77c | 999.99$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 43c | 931.12$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.11 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8768backed Yes | 33c | 928$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.