TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdc32…3290

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Boxing, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 51 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST2010%2 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$109.06
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$215.66
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$26.37
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$535.62
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+108.1%+$216.16
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$245.43
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$139.96
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$123.55
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.19
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.78
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.23
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$55.19
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$163.99
All 20 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST1747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lightning vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$88
Golden Knights vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$102
Sabres vs. Oilersbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+37.6%+$112.77
Capitals vs. Ducksbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$112
Utah vs. Canucksbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+78.6%+$78.57
Wild vs. Flamesbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Kraken vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+53.8%+$53.85
Red Wings vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Utah vs. Ducksbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+92.3%+$184.62
Utah vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Capitals vs. Sharksbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+69.5%+$69.49
Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Capitals vs. Kingsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+49.3%+$49.25
Wild vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$41.7
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+33.3%+$50
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$987.17
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.83
All 17 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: LAR (-8.5)backed Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Bengals vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+63.9%+$63.93
Steelers vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$971Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+33.3%+$323.58
All 5 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canada election called before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.9
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$217.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+32.1%+$32.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Suns vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.