TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Lakers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Suns, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,220,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,580,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,220,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,030 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Suns33c844,704$278,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565,951.7815443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4297…ea39backed Lakers21c394,345$81,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,289.51421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82a1…e03abacked Lakers67c370,245$249,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249,765.915952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9209…1379backed Lakers8c120,492$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc99b…bc96backed Lakers67c110,425$73,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,984.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lakers67c100,000$67,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,40051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers67c96,121$64,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,596.342,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Lakers14c85,798$12,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,342.5122846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed72…b8b0backed Lakers67c75,472$50,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,566.142245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8688…278fbacked Lakers15c68,925$10,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,075.271330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-48.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Lakers43c68,171$29,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,65025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lakers33c60,000$19,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,995.7238248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Lakers66c52,540$34,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,936.3927251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns53c47,057$24,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,170.6659653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lakers67c45,628$30,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,524.837557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed Lakers66c38,188$25,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,382.452759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Suns33c37,873$12,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,425.9969852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Lakers70c36,000$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,199.9934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns32c35,041$11,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,827.6887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Lakers68c35,000$23,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,80010837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lakers67c34,991$23,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,424.811,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Suns53c33,099$17,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,641.5714025%35 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Suns32c32,529$10,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,246.5126753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Lakers1c30,422$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.9567911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Suns34c29,537$10,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,536.121944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers68c29,403$19,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,860.942,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e0…f075backed Lakers9c27,927$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.391421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Suns32c27,682$8,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,792.0192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns53c27,045$14,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,654.945,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Suns30c24,929$7,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,450.4970147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Suns33c23,769$7,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,925.463151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Suns70c22,976$16,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,798.963,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Suns60c22,673$13,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,969.074037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Lakers16c19,500$3,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,097.448046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Suns35c17,904$6,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,637.4717554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers53c15,344$8,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,086.4585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b5…d6f8backed Lakers0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Suns64c14,570$9,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,293.259646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Suns36c14,438$5,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,177.557745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Lakers39c14,021$5,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,468.342142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Lakers56c13,200$7,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,406.0611242%47 W · 65 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Suns79c12,646$9,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,655.572142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Lakers57c11,000$6,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,321.9516942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Suns65c10,976$7,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,880.0348448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Suns34c10,500$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,93056945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Lakers64c10,450$6,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,690.3316446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lakers25c10,295$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,607.331,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Suns33c10,148$3,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,799.482,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a0b…a933backed Suns33c10,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,700580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+89.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Suns34c9,975$3,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,618.077255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Lakers67c9,818$6,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6125139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Suns33c9,027$2,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,067.572450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Suns36c8,873$3,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,674.2144459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Lakers1c8,600$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8664517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns33c8,535$2,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,701.69,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns68c8,250$5,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.681,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Suns30c8,048$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,633.2520542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Lakers10c7,731$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.117147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Suns79c7,713$6,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.917450%37 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e88…7c99backed Lakers8c7,521$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.885552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb50a…f151backed Lakers66c7,500$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+73%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Lakers66c7,469$4,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,929.214339.5%17 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe756…e006backed Suns27c7,123$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,171.4432827.4%90 W · 238 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Suns78c7,000$5,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5405959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Lakers1c6,897$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5134227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Suns79c6,827$5,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.661675%12 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns33c6,748$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,487.193,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb322…2179backed Suns62c6,424$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.654040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd59e…50b5backed Suns32c6,400$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,352757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Suns49c6,379$3,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,232.7144654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Suns78c6,278$4,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.637731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Suns32c6,251$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,236.513743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Suns62c6,062$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.9681529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lakers67c6,000$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0201,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce5…660ebacked Lakers68c6,000$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,080520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-62.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Suns34c6,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,959.983455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe34…e166backed Lakers5c5,960$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.0552137.2%194 W · 327 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Suns35c5,759$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,758.8213153.4%70 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa344…6cc3backed Lakers68c5,583$3,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,796.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed Lakers72c5,569$4,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008.671675%12 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lakers63c5,328$3,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,363.321,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf940…e72dbacked Lakers68c5,200$3,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,536616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick57cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39ef…71c6backed Lakers68c5,200$3,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5361050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Lakers21c5,111$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06112238.5%47 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f00…8982backed Suns63c4,818$3,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786.54676.1%35 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Suns45c4,768$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,612.1726038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Suns63c4,762$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.0366744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab5…aab4backed Lakers29c4,755$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Lakers59c4,750$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,790.2673649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42fd…4661backed Suns78c4,565$3,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.246448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Suns26c4,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,33018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Lakers67c4,478$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00027152%141 W · 130 L-17.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns47c4,444$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.488,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Lakers54c4,439$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,392.8278445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c5…6d61backed Suns33c4,430$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,968.34040%16 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Lakers69c4,360$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.515551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be8…8d8bbacked Suns31c4,225$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c47…9edbbacked Lakers69c4,225$2,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,915.25875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+95.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Suns57c4,130$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.5522053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b3…2e90backed Lakers32c4,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2801553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.