NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4906b34edf8913c1d8efc2f6b34e58d66fa578a481c43a6e324d864ca8e31234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Under | 60c | 8,061$4,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,224.52 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 7,317$3,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,169.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 6,953$3,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,391.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 40c | 6,930$2,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…cf3abacked Under | 60c | 5,594$3,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 54c | 1,856$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.56 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Over | 40c | 1,700$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 52c | 1,301$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.48 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 47c | 973.96$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.76 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 61c | 912.82$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Over | 48c | 902.08$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 749$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.32 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 39c | 632.15$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.11 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 627$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 39c | 521$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.19 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Under | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 52c | 260$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 249$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 39c | 192.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 55c | 190$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 129.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 41c | 124.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Over | 43c | 108.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Under | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 49c | 80.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 47c | 67.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…e269backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 31.2%77 W · 170 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 46c | 55.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Over | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Under | 59c | 46.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 42c | 46.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5this page
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. LakersSuns won
- Suns vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.