NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbfacbdf639d6ff659b4dd9468d2d1e526920102a4fa59b068d5f0b06487e6c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Lakers, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Lakers | 44c | 8,087$3,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,567.89 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 56c | 5,365$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.6 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 48c | 3,720$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Suns | 56c | 3,336$1,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.21 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 44c | 2,709$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Suns | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Suns | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Suns | 55c | 1,800$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Lakers | 44c | 1,368$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.92 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Suns | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Lakers | 45c | 825$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.25 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Lakers | 43c | 777$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.11 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Lakers | 45c | 680$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Lakers | 47c | 610.91$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.13 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Lakers | 44c | 565.91$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 46c | 484.11$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Lakers | 48c | 353.6$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.86 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 49c | 336.02$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.04 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…440ebacked Suns | 54c | 298.15$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Lakers | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Lakers | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Suns | 54c | 229.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Suns | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 46c | 202.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Suns | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Suns | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…74ccbacked Suns | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Lakers | 43c | 149.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Lakers | 44c | 136.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Lakers | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Lakers | 46c | 128.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Lakers | 45c | 126.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Suns | 55c | 121.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Lakers | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Lakers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Lakers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Suns | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Suns | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Lakers | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Suns | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Lakers | 46c | 91.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 308 | 26.6%82 W · 226 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Suns | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Suns | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Suns | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Lakers | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lakers | 50c | 60.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Suns | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Lakers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Suns | 34c | 48.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Suns | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Lakers | 47c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Lakers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Lakers | 41c | 41.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Suns | 59c | 41.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Lakers | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Lakers | 68c | 40.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Suns | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 210 | 62.9%132 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…d04ebacked Suns | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Suns | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Suns | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Suns | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Suns | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…fde0backed Suns | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9a…5f69backed Lakers | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 521 | 3.8%20 W · 501 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. LakersSuns won
- Suns vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.