NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577084623782d99bcb4eb209af33183b6c898843da38e1a192c06a7dd038e90e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Lakers, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 46c | 3,266$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Lakers | 53c | 2,200$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 47c | 1,139$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.67 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Lakers | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Lakers | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e6…cbd8backed Suns | 48c | 484.68$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.03 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Lakers | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Lakers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 46c | 121.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Lakers | 54c | 121.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Lakers | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Lakers | 55c | 97.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Lakers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Lakers | 52c | 92.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Lakers | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 45c | 86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 47c | 76.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Lakers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Lakers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Lakers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…abf0backed Lakers | 53c | 62.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Lakers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3699…62cdbacked Lakers | 58c | 52.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…cbe8backed Lakers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Lakers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Lakers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Suns | 45c | 33.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…1531backed Lakers | 55c | 33.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Suns | 47c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Suns | 47c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Lakers | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. LakersSuns won
- Suns vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.