Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d1c31998d907cf29350d42af1e74c7a9b3fc5c9d9e35db62f77076576d0ad4

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $906,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $713,140

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $906,106 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 729 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	16c	29,565$4,857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,857.38	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	6c	20,400$1,191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,191.32	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	35c	17,859$6,313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,313.44	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	55c	17,141$9,441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,440.98	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	57c	16,348$9,253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,253.49	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	63c	13,431$8,420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,011.12	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	41c	12,664$5,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,219.97	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	11c	12,171$1,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,332.28	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	8c	11,373$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.29	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a96…7508backed Yes	0c	10,400$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	10,177$1,745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,745.32	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	10,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	68c	9,597$6,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,076.62	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	26c	9,158$2,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,397.34	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	76c	8,475$6,458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,016.81	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	36c	7,611$2,731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,730.99	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	19c	7,012$1,340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,340	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Yes	44c	6,619$2,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,880.43	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	50c	6,441$3,213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,228.09	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe70a…8084backed Yes	44c	6,178$2,693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,692.62	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes	11c	6,094$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$689.88	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	10c	6,057$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes	50c	6,038$3,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,018.91	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…0b80backed Yes	53c	6,033$3,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,194.32	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	9c	5,555$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.36	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	5,003$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.04	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	40c	4,965$1,995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,970.05	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	51c	4,964$2,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,517.25	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked No	60c	4,701$2,820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,880.63	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdff1…4803backed Yes	25c	4,661$1,183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,183.28	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	27c	4,264$1,146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,145.88	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	71c	4,204$2,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,999.32	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	1c	4,166$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	74c	4,144$3,059 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,084.51	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	13c	4,076$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.44	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes	17c	3,655$628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.22	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No	40c	3,574$1,442 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,132.78	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	37c	3,501$1,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,285.1	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	30c	3,354$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.4	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	67c	3,321$2,225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,096.11	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	21c	3,036$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.81	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc43…abf5backed No	73c	3,011$2,185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$825.64	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	70cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	41c	2,975$1,231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,231.22	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	55c	2,974$1,624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,624.46	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	43c	2,927$1,263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,263.32	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	29c	2,880$830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830.09	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,734$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.36	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	11c	2,666$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.5	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes	39c	2,648$1,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,025.74	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2364…d963backed Yes	42c	2,606$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099.81	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	20c	2,557$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.56	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	5c	2,555$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.75	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	61c	2,515$1,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,530	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	65c	2,504$1,620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,620	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	15c	2,500$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.33	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	41c	2,482$1,018 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,018.43	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes	12c	2,458$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.88	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+60.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a0f…8f06backed No	66c	2,438$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$837.88	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	40c	2,438$967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.35	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	36c	2,381$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.41	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes	9c	2,350$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.75	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa817…f9d6backed Yes	38c	2,317$881 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$881.25	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	43c	2,146$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920.32	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	49c	2,078$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,009.6	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	14c	2,037$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	45c	2,013$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$905.13	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	72c	1,968$1,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$548.76	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff6…d728backed Yes	28c	1,891$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.51	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b99…eda5backed Yes	36c	1,744$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.97	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ed…9374backed Yes	18c	1,740$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.6	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	11c	1,657$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.5	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	24c	1,645$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	18c	1,621$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	26c	1,618$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.93	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked No	73c	1,610$1,173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.75	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	25c	1,605$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.17	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	22c	1,600$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.78	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdafe…c673backed Yes	52c	1,570$821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$820.8	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes	51c	1,562$789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788.88	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	16c	1,555$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.56	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3d…82d8backed Yes	50c	1,548$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4864…1351backed Yes	13c	1,500$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.86	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68b1…37d0backed No	50c	1,450$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$725	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.41per pick	60cpaid	+72.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d66…e8a7backed Yes	50c	1,450$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	33c	1,446$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.18	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ec…d73cbacked Yes	32c	1,440$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.73	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	40c	1,439$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	62c	1,434$891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$890.93	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc32f…cb35backed Yes	16c	1,428$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.39	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No	64c	1,412$897 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.01	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	74c	1,408$1,043 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.36	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	78c	1,406$1,097 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.9	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	1,395$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.1	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6124…204fbacked Yes	31c	1,369$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+160.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	38c	1,343$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.24	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	33c	1,300$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.35	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05dc…967ebacked Yes	44c	1,299$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.49	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No	60c	1,292$771 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$521.18	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event