Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf16c671fbfbcf0dad40db7d5df45d9c834b96dbea52b52d6e663251e59fd3fbe

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $189,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,384 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	52,519$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.52	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	28,888$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	4c	5,894$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.12	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,389$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	4,219$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.41	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x118c…74c5backed Yes	1c	3,526$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.45	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	2c	2,379$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.72	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	9c	2,227$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	4c	1,600$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.6	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	4c	1,245$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.29	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes	2c	1,187$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.3	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ac…da2ebacked Yes	4c	1,185$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	2c	1,150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.18	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	5c	1,119$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	4c	1,019$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.89	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	4c	999.42$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.13	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	975.35$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.31	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	930.68$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	843.23$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.7	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	3c	841.86$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	2c	816.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	1c	800$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	715.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes	6c	632.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	4c	535.66$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb2…6b49backed Yes	5c	435.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	374.52$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.14	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	3c	320$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	4c	300.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	4c	296.75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes	4c	279.54$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78b…271cbacked Yes	4c	262.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	5c	234.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	5c	208.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event