Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d40785b01d34656f91e3ba1487517f5ec187b7440fb790fafe990eaadb13e2

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $923,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $591,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $923,269 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	28,381$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.66	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	23,935$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.95	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	4c	23,220$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960.14	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	22,880$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.07	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	20,580$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.54	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	19c	19,205$3,683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,683.39	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	17,000$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.71	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	12,066$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.98	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	9,599$1,649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,648.92	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes	12c	9,226$1,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,070	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	11c	9,182$1,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,045.52	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe51f…473dbacked Yes	2c	8,499$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.83	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	21c	7,596$1,558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,558	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9fc4…089cbacked Yes	2c	7,534$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	6,800$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.1	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	75c	6,483$4,844 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,639.35	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	6,225$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.98	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	6,124$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.45	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	13c	6,040$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	3c	6,000$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	1c	5,275$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.8	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	4c	5,000$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.49	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	2c	5,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	5,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	12c	4,979$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.36	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	4,712$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.82	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	2c	4,694$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.18	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	4,545$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.23	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	4,425$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.54	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	1c	4,100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.27	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes	2c	4,066$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	11c	3,961$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.93	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	3,951$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.46	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23f7…547fbacked Yes	9c	3,909$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.92	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+676.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	2c	3,698$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.68	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	67c	3,651$2,462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,188.21	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2275…c88bbacked Yes	0c	3,611$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	22c	3,428$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$764.69	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	3,421$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.36	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	15c	3,407$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.1	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	8c	3,365$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.75	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,245$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.82	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	6c	3,210$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.15	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	26c	3,185$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$839.98	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,039$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.27	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	1c	3,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	11c	2,975$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.67	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	1c	2,900$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe70a…8084backed Yes	9c	2,893$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.45	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	2,844$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.24	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	1c	2,761$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.42	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x908e…89e9backed Yes	1c	2,728$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	6c	2,571$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.57	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,528$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.59	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	18c	2,419$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.49	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6124…204fbacked Yes	8c	2,308$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.9	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+160.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	1c	2,272$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.33	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	77c	2,258$1,741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516.84	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	33c	2,232$743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$743.07	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	77c	2,053$1,577 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$476.19	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	24c	2,042$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	2,023$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.68	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	3c	2,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	1,995$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.37	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	20c	1,967$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.37	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,959$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.15	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	2c	1,905$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.77	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed Yes	1c	1,845$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4864…1351backed Yes	13c	1,838$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.66	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	23c	1,822$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.97	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xded6…682abacked Yes	1c	1,817$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,761$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.68	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes	3c	1,701$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,688$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.34	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	1,668$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	1,662$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.55	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	3c	1,610$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.3	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f14…026ebacked Yes	31c	1,590$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	20cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9425…f025backed Yes	2c	1,482$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.37	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	10c	1,463$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.28	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	2c	1,434$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	8c	1,400$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes	22c	1,390$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.78	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa127…e94cbacked Yes	1c	1,385$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	3c	1,359$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.38	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fe…7465backed Yes	1c	1,353$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9b…7ff2backed Yes	32c	1,317$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.3	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	31c	1,300$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.81	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,291$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.99	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1622…4d4ebacked Yes	1c	1,268$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	3c	1,245$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	10c	1,222$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.81	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	33c	1,212$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f1…7b61backed Yes	3c	1,178$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.03	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	7cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No	63c	1,178$741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.53	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9324…593dbacked Yes	4c	1,117$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	2c	1,116$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	2c	1,115$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	18c	1,100$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.85	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event