Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a965e2ef6d9fb85eeacc5200eaab107f37d683a2d0c0658a76a4054071486e

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $842,034
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $874,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $842,034 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	61,234$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.8	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	51,299$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.75	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab51…e02cbacked Yes	0c	16,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	14,303$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.07	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	13,089$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.86	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	33	3%1 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	0c	10,999$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	2c	7,984$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.52	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	7,330$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.47	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	1c	5,511$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5344…b9a5backed Yes	3c	3,338$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes	1c	3,300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6133…6bafbacked Yes	0c	3,273$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes	1c	3,081$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+436.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	2,913$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.29	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	1c	2,340$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	1c	1,867$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,852$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,832$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.72	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	1,700$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	1,678$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	1c	1,642$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	1,603$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	1c	1,573$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	1c	1,416$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes	2c	1,234$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	2c	1,113$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.54	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	2c	981.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30e3…b595backed Yes	2c	710.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event