Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd655f923c9f28c34adb0f18a90b1a940368d33692329a486e6d987c35b2b3b9d

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,004,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,004,812 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9be1…d51fbacked Yes	0c	808,436$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc30…b6f7backed Yes	0c	804,000$804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	67,329$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.66	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	19,198$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.04	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	11,974$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,035$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x620e…621bbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	4,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5320…f3b2backed Yes	0c	2,728$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	2,652$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.6	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	8c	2,169$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.12	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	5c	1,934$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.37	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…adcabacked Yes	1c	1,436$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	2c	1,250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,237$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.31	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…8652backed Yes	1c	1,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	11cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,198$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	1,100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	1,067$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.59	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	1,050$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.37	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	6c	1,003$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.18	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	7c	999.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	900$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	887.56$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…52b5backed Yes	3c	870$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.1	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…dc21backed Yes	3c	818.65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	2c	800.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.81	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	7c	746.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.44	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27a…0218backed Yes	8c	642.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	8c	597.11$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8f…1c31backed Yes	7c	595.26$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	4c	552.43$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.57	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	8c	515.52$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.41	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	3c	499.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	5c	499.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	485.79$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	5c	433.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ab…5a73backed Yes	3c	398.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.34per pick	46cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x08a0…11f9backed Yes	6c	346.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes	4c	309.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	6c	300.24$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	7c	300$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6855…7acabacked Yes	4c	299.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	6c	297.28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xced4…5055backed Yes	5c	252.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	7c	251.58$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.61	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa801…b40bbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes	6c	233.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c22…16e8backed Yes	7c	159.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37b…1b84backed Yes	8c	128.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d2…2628backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event