Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda8c86bdd49beaa87c48b18fe42ce9d63d8ef69b4c3a5e45af8424af3971c5e1

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $747,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $354,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $747,524 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	105,375$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.46	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	70,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes	0c	35,377$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.38	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	27,776$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	0c	22,667$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.67	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	15,763$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.56	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	11,645$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	10,362$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	7,505$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	6,979$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.45	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	5,359$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	4,781$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.71	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	4,384$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.38	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	0c	3,861$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.45	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	0c	3,664$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes	1c	3,035$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	84	15.5%13 W · 71 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,012$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x376f…2bb7backed Yes	1c	3,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	2,839$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.45	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75c8…d43cbacked Yes	1c	2,822$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.48	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8af3…0c5dbacked Yes	1c	2,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	1c	2,241$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.51	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,201$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes	9c	2,134$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa1f…0ec8backed Yes	9c	2,126$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,099$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	2,040$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	2,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	1c	2,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,967$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.56	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	3c	1,955$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.72	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,951$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.96	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	1,797$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.67	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,784$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.54	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,686$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.38	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb249…dbb1backed Yes	1c	1,645$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,641$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.86	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	1,550$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+217.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,342$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes	3c	1,333$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.86	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	8c	1,261$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x999e…d166backed Yes	3c	1,200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eea…726bbacked Yes	9c	1,161$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	2c	1,124$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	2c	1,115$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.98	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes	2c	953.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	90	12.2%11 W · 79 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	6c	878.51$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.71	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	6c	849.82$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.99	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	4c	783.51$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	6c	592.07$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	520.4$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.56	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	5c	499.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	3c	450$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28b…fdf5backed Yes	10c	441.7$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.17	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	2c	413.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	6c	408.04$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes	10c	388.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	7c	339.3$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.88	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	7c	333.34$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.33	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	7c	299.96$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.24	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	8c	293.04$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19b…478dbacked Yes	8c	284.11$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.73	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb44…6fa6backed Yes	4c	281.03$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	253.02$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.77	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x964f…ca58backed Yes	8c	249$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	7c	223.52$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.34	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d7…84e0backed Yes	9c	219.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	215$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce7e…e65fbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	6c	186.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	6c	155$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e1e…0f8abacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	62	27.4%17 W · 45 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e10…b1ffbacked Yes	9c	119.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+169.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event