Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2be19548b54cefd4a5c99309125e088bc0543b4e7f49ec14cbb7f590d22db68

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,106,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,055,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,106,176 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 540 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	48,332$4,188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44,143.73	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	69c	22,500$15,558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,942.31	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	55c	21,686$11,909 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,777.59	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	6c	17,229$988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,240.92	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	6c	11,696$755 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,940.99	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	36c	11,599$4,208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,391.48	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	11,362$1,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,346.02	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	19c	11,292$2,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,116.68	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	11,271$1,301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,970.56	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	20c	10,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,000	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a08…d820backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	15c	8,445$1,278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,166.94	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	58c	8,366$4,876 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,489.5	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	24c	7,701$1,825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,876.1	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	11c	7,575$832 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,742.99	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	47c	7,079$3,325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,754.3	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	6,888$975 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,913.05	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	34c	6,691$2,297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,394.08	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	9c	6,386$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,821.75	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	6,000$836 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,164.33	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No	0c	6,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	73c	5,752$4,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,202.55	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	41c	5,518$2,238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,238.48	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	66c	5,407$3,552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,854.93	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No	2c	5,195$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.64	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes	10c	5,163$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,632.43	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	78c	4,895$3,799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,799.31	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	58c	4,798$2,806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,992.15	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	40c	4,373$1,746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,745.94	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	21c	4,089$875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,214.2	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	1c	3,802$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.94	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked No	74c	3,668$2,715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,714.98	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	75c	3,586$2,686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900.59	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	25c	3,513$894 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,618.84	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	9c	3,177$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,900.16	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	47c	3,164$1,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,692.46	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	47c	3,119$1,456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,662.7	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	7c	2,880$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,685.63	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	6c	2,867$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,709.04	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	8c	2,685$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,472.3	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	65c	2,629$1,709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920.02	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	6c	2,584$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,428.69	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf295…667abacked Yes	9c	2,562$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,337.71	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed No	20c	2,557$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.92	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes	8c	2,510$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,309.19	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	26c	2,502$643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,859.28	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	26c	2,502$643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,858.95	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	36c	2,482$896 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,586.54	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	20c	2,480$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,981.02	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	57c	2,360$1,346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,014.17	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	29c	2,313$675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,638.1	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes	9c	2,253$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,053.17	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b97…c4a3backed Yes	17c	2,088$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,733.16	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	2,085$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,926.67	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	10c	2,077$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,876.01	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	15c	2,004$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,698.66	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	23c	2,000$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,534	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	8c	2,000$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,849	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	5c	2,000$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,909.96	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No	75c	1,987$1,488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,488.19	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	8c	1,969$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,815.29	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	38c	1,950$742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,207.72	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf91…2991backed Yes	58c	1,898$1,102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$796.04	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	8c	1,800$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,657.19	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	8c	1,784$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,634.84	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	8c	1,782$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,644.79	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	55c	1,782$981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800.69	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	44c	1,723$761 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$961.89	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8858…4b6bbacked Yes	57c	1,689$967 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$722.45	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	44cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a0…d0a4backed No	36c	1,654$593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.79	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c8…2564backed Yes	22c	1,623$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,263.25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3d…82d8backed No	55c	1,621$896 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	5c	1,559$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,481.26	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	1,559$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,436.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	9c	1,554$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,419.3	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	62c	1,547$963 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$583.74	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes	71c	1,519$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.09	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	20c	1,500$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,195	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked No	79c	1,500$1,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	8c	1,496$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,378.42	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes	57c	1,480$838 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$641.95	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	6c	1,472$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,376.32	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ec…d73cbacked Yes	27c	1,440$391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,048.78	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16d6…7268backed Yes	65c	1,430$929 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.33	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked No	70c	1,428$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	73cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	19c	1,425$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,150.57	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb392…0b80backed Yes	64c	1,424$909 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.27	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	8c	1,319$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,211.94	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05dc…967ebacked Yes	68c	1,270$869 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.17	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	10c	1,268$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,144.84	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	28c	1,254$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$906.96	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	11c	1,244$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,101.94	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…fb2ebacked Yes	16c	1,228$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,035.64	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4864…1351backed Yes	11c	1,220$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,090.8	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	14c	1,219$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,042.9	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	1,214$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,087.55	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	1,212$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,024.87	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	13c	1,207$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,045.1	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdafe…c673backed Yes	19c	1,200$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$968.15	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	20c	1,191$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$951.35	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event