Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d5303049d7f0e9a9c8a440200e3714dd5799e50602ab6cfbef0de40c06a9021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,095,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $632,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,095,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 0c | 98,018$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.78 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes | 0c | 75,231$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 67,263$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.87 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…6807backed Yes | 0c | 44,530$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 32,226$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.15 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 0c | 28,622$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c65…701bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,080$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 19,048$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,983$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 136 | 0.7%1 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +635.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 13,037$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,051$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,606$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…eadfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…e99abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,020$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 0c | 6,517$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 5,345$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 5,311$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 0c | 4,948$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 0c | 4,732$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…b9a5backed Yes | 2c | 4,510$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39e…1344backed Yes | 1c | 4,008$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 3,162$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 1c | 2,650$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 364 | 4.7%17 W · 347 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…fe27backed Yes | 6c | 2,402$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…753fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,331$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,316$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 182 | 4.9%9 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,306$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 2,286$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 2,233$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 2c | 2,098$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 91 | 4.4%4 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Yes | 1c | 1,982$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,977$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 2c | 1,965$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,959$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 118 | 5.1%6 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,526$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,503$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…089cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,438$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…01f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,385$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 1,289$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…5309backed Yes | 2c | 1,265$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 1,139$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 861.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 89 | 9%8 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 2c | 818.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6c…7714backed Yes | 3c | 772.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 6c | 738.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +13.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed Yes | 3c | 686.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 5c | 607.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes | 6c | 600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 5c | 503.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…2c20backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6550…fc98backed Yes | 3c | 431.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 3c | 403.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 4c | 390.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 3c | 380.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e3…1118backed Yes | 3c | 372.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 362.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 301.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed Yes | 4c | 295.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…56b6backed Yes | 7c | 187.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…4630backed Yes | 8c | 150.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.