Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13415aad49412ce2bbf324045e8d85c1b4a74e5472f2ff348874b54c2af0bc26

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $820,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $399,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $820,853 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes	0c	65,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	31,927$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.36	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	20,943$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.68	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	16,305$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.31	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	1c	15,564$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.78	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	14,741$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.52	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	13,406$1,353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,352.79	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	10,740$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	10,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	9c	9,530$836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$836.38	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	9,350$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.48	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	14c	6,740$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x20c1…4017backed Yes	0c	6,056$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	9c	6,027$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$568.84	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	6,000$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.18	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	5,493$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	5,180$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.25	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	15c	5,000$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	8c	4,914$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.39	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	14c	4,441$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	11c	4,000$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.88	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	3,891$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.27	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	11c	3,449$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.65	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	7c	3,304$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.46	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	13c	3,089$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.41	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	3,000$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	6c	2,760$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.74	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes	8c	2,504$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+71%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc4…089cbacked Yes	8c	2,500$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.4	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	12c	2,305$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	13c	2,009$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.88	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	15c	1,972$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf527…e4e0backed Yes	13c	1,938$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.53	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3f1…7b61backed Yes	3c	1,902$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.81	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	7cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	12c	1,821$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.96	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	12c	1,770$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.36	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	13c	1,712$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.9	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,663$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.59	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	9c	1,662$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.57	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ec…d73cbacked Yes	13c	1,657$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	9c	1,601$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.76	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	14c	1,581$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.96	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,576$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.89	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	3c	1,513$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.74	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	13c	1,500$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	5c	1,500$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.01	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	1,436$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.17	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	10c	1,400$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.64	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,349$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.09	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	5c	1,308$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.13	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.3	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	3c	1,294$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	4c	1,286$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.71	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes	14c	1,264$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.7	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,231$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.78	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	6c	1,205$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.55	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes	1c	1,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	1,200$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.36	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	15c	1,116$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes	15c	1,095$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.45	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	13c	1,042$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.72	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee6b…167dbacked Yes	6c	1,029$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes	13c	1,014$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.81	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	6c	1,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	11c	999.99$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.5	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6388…7622backed Yes	9c	960$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.74	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	16c	927.75$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.85	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff3f…ba83backed Yes	12c	926.43$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.61	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	15c	921.86$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.1	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	9c	900$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.6	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bae…5199backed Yes	13c	890.13$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.45	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	11c	887.24$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.41	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	12c	875.91$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.39	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6124…204fbacked Yes	15c	860.34$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.9	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+160.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	9c	838$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.1	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	12c	804.72$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	750$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…8880backed Yes	7c	749.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26c8…2564backed Yes	14c	720.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…56b6backed Yes	13c	710.4$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.95	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3537…45fdbacked Yes	13c	676.92$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8e…e3cebacked Yes	10c	646.22$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.96	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	14c	637.94$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.7	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	16c	637.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	9c	619.12$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.06	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	16c	611.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	14c	546.2$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.36	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48ee…c1c3backed Yes	17c	532.41$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.52	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb44…6fa6backed Yes	3c	518.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes	10c	518.07$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.1	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1de5…c008backed Yes	10c	510.2$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-73%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6c…7714backed Yes	15c	510.03$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.54	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	8c	505.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	5c	502.76$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	500$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.88	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event