Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac00b602138e6c1e3c6263cc2a1bb53dcf4b9eb63dbd31da9ef05ac93775d5e

Rebuilt 27 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $490,423
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $191,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,423 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	63,878$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.76	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	0c	35,785$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.79	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	12,404$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.68	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	10,619$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.2	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8af3…0c5dbacked Yes	0c	5,834$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	3,500$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	8c	2,600$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	2,597$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.02	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,380$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes	3c	2,098$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.93	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	6c	2,079$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.52	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…adcabacked Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,790$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.77	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,665$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.19	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	4c	1,636$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.25	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,629$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.07	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	1c	1,486$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	1,440$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…b1d1backed Yes	6c	1,348$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.85	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,330$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.17	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	1,100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	3c	1,078$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	7c	1,063$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.9	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,056$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.18	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	8c	1,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.52	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes	3c	999.98$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	6c	971.55$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.65	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes	8c	877.44$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.3	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	763.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	5c	733.88$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27a…0218backed Yes	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	6c	689.46$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.15	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	7c	593.21$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.06	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	8c	519.92$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa37b…1b84backed Yes	8c	486.57$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x964f…ca58backed Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a0…11f9backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	7c	299.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	7c	299.69$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.96	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d6…b696backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa801…b40bbacked Yes	7c	277.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	8c	237.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	5c	220$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	6c	207.88$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce7e…e65fbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3333…6d86backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	75	16%12 W · 63 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6841…3715backed Yes	8c	187.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	5c	184.19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	6c	169.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event