TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x08a0…11f9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST1827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $50M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Over $30M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$460
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$5,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$5,050
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+33.4%+$167.15
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$329.9
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+127.3%+$280
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$4,151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+131.5%+$5,457.17
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,756Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+128.2%+$2,250.93
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+48%+$1,026.67
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$545Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$545.22
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$14.1
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+148.3%+$29.67
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+327.4%+$65.47
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+300%+$60
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$175
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana dip to $120 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+108.3%+$32.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$130
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.