Token Launches · resolved market
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fb74fb59131bd84a8b665f6146f6e3f9075194093730d93c6374f712de72fe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $857,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $918,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $857,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 505 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcae9…c13bbacked Yes | 0c | 59,880$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…c677backed Yes | 32c | 56,218$17,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,901.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 19c | 30,408$5,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,686.83 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…b8f1backed Yes | 16c | 28,269$4,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,619.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 1c | 21,500$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Yes | 20c | 20,279$4,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,034.92 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed No | 56c | 14,000$7,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,159.93 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…21a4backed No | 12c | 11,990$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,588.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 17c | 10,836$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…c9a5backed No | 8c | 10,416$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,618.45 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 68c | 9,859$6,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.51 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed No | 71c | 8,396$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,395.89 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf854…c850backed No | 42c | 8,363$3,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,817.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…886ebacked No | 39c | 8,062$3,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,952.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…840ebacked Yes | 23c | 7,259$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.04 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +7.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed No | 29c | 6,653$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,749.62 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc452…7234backed No | 41c | 6,630$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,930.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 63c | 6,500$4,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,071.34 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…6fa3backed No | 78c | 6,000$4,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed No | 26c | 5,933$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,394.5 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 79c | 5,887$4,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.05 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…ff78backed Yes | 17c | 5,758$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…95b0backed Yes | 19c | 5,657$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes | 60c | 5,629$3,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.16 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 16c | 5,593$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720.23 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 16c | 5,223$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,407.59 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 59c | 5,085$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,980.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…935abacked No | 46c | 5,035$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.84 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…a3d6backed No | 77c | 4,928$3,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.54 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed No | 78c | 4,411$3,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 4,172$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.06 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9a…76d2backed No | 40c | 4,000$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…b7d6backed Yes | 60c | 4,000$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ef…cbe5backed No | 39c | 4,000$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefc…d1a4backed Yes | 57c | 4,000$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…7b31backed Yes | 61c | 4,000$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 27c | 4,000$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,932 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…b075backed No | 42c | 4,000$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd762…1e56backed Yes | 70c | 3,866$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.69 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 65c | 3,741$2,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…94edbacked Yes | 14c | 3,707$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 71c | 3,703$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.23 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 54c | 3,374$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.79 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…c7d8backed Yes | 61c | 3,272$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…3985backed No | 79c | 3,253$2,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked No | 30c | 3,239$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +276.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948c…42eebacked No | 24c | 3,153$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.72 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…caa3backed Yes | 35c | 3,091$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed No | 18c | 2,888$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.96 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0d…e5c6backed Yes | 73c | 2,859$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,085.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 20c | 2,693$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…160ebacked No | 77c | 2,607$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.91 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed Yes | 17c | 2,511$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.32 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…5f4cbacked No | 62c | 2,503$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.28 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 23c | 2,474$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.79 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfca8…8644backed No | 39c | 2,400$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…7b21backed No | 54c | 2,258$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…bd88backed No | 39c | 2,200$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +126%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…64babacked No | 42c | 2,150$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…2fe8backed No | 60c | 2,131$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.89 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 2,127$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.85 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 30c | 2,111$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.92 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…dbe6backed No | 38c | 2,108$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.43 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…0834backed No | 39c | 2,100$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe716…dc38backed No | 43c | 2,065$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 72c | 2,063$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.04 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…a60ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,056$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 2,042$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.45 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 68c | 2,028$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.08 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…aa6fbacked No | 41c | 2,018$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.41 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…42e5backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839c…dcc6backed Yes | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x400a…9a1ebacked No | 41c | 1,982$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…5f89backed No | 43c | 1,935$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…12aabacked Yes | 68c | 1,916$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…fa0cbacked No | 39c | 1,900$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 1,873$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.63 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc67…5469backed No | 42c | 1,850$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112d…41abbacked No | 39c | 1,800$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…63c3backed No | 75c | 1,797$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 51c | 1,748$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…fd0dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,720$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,698$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 64c | 1,635$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.58 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…38cabacked Yes | 75c | 1,600$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…336fbacked No | 39c | 1,600$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed Yes | 16c | 1,600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.6 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 66c | 1,462$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.6 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb0…fa19backed No | 69c | 1,444$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…11f9backed Yes | 21c | 1,416$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 1,347$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.57 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…aa68backed Yes | 20c | 1,300$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.53 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 54c | 1,300$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.79 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…5be3backed Yes | 16c | 1,192$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…b89ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,162$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 77c | 1,145$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $50M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $70M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $90M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.