Over $40M committed to the Hurupay public sale?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf78aa206d7a0f35ffa89fc9e310f721863e5104bf211edd5af177ec33afc7576

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $174,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $174,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,250 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x06e2…2a29backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac13…b93ebacked Yes	15c	13,190$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4bd…bfc8backed Yes	11c	6,199$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.01	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadf4…997abacked Yes	17c	5,769$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.49	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes	11c	4,452$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.12	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed No	80c	3,041$2,433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$608.22	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+2.7wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+65.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	7c	2,871$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.92	237	7.2%17 W · 220 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7170…8d82backed Yes	1c	2,857$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9bc…9b04backed Yes	4c	2,638$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.48	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-23%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd762…1e56backed Yes	9c	2,563$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.92	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-4.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	5c	1,888$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.38	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-7.7wins	-0.13per pick	21cpaid	-82%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	1,798$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.54	328	3%10 W · 318 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	1,670$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.4	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	4c	1,661$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.69	124	3.2%4 W · 120 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	3c	1,560$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	233	3.4%8 W · 225 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	5c	1,523$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.66	123	4.1%5 W · 118 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	-9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	1,460$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.2	244	2%5 W · 239 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2c…898abacked Yes	3c	1,440$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.66	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…dc7dbacked Yes	4c	1,406$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed Yes	1c	1,365$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-15%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	5c	1,363$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.39	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	+12.1wins	+0.09per pick	22cpaid	+164.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes	2c	1,356$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.79	111	24.3%27 W · 84 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Yes	6c	1,349$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac2…ea15backed Yes	30c	1,308$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.76	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+37.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe965…d4a7backed Yes	16c	1,300$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0430…4b6ebacked Yes	2c	1,129$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37f0…6edabacked Yes	2c	1,080$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.12	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	+10%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd614…33a9backed Yes	19c	1,030$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	254	1.6%4 W · 250 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	56	57.1%32 W · 24 L	+11.4wins	+0.20per pick	37cpaid	+74.3%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No	70c	1,000$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b0b…c3dfbacked Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes	2c	999.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a0…802dbacked Yes	10c	999.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf05…2a23backed Yes	13c	800$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.54	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	+10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes	3c	790.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	48	31.3%15 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x485d…47edbacked Yes	4c	713.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-6.6wins	-0.21per pick	37cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x828d…c9a5backed No	76c	684.54$519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.84	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	4c	660.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes	11c	609.08$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80e4…dc76backed Yes	22c	600$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	550$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d32…563abacked Yes	27c	550$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	35	40%14 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-23%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Yes	7c	543.52$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.05	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	-24%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0897…040bbacked Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	472.02$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.19	357	12.9%46 W · 311 L	-29.9wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	450.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.33	209	4.3%9 W · 200 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	15c	442.05$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.31	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b4d…c365backed Yes	19c	400$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x68bb…61a3backed Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d28…9b1cbacked Yes	12c	400$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a3…3f46backed Yes	19c	394.74$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6585…2a0bbacked Yes	11c	352.06$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	19cpaid	-87%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	10c	350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f04…bceabacked Yes	18c	330.49$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd160…0af6backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ac…d864backed Yes	11c	300$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2208…f6f5backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.6wins	-0.21per pick	39cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f8d…a2c4backed Yes	12c	253.85$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed No	70c	250$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	84	21.4%18 W · 66 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+37%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xffb2…2744backed Yes	11c	231.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x988e…5558backed Yes	12c	209.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…78c0backed Yes	19c	209.59$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	75	4%3 W · 72 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	7c	188.1$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	254	22%56 W · 198 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaefd…b786backed Yes	12c	150$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x795f…a403backed Yes	17c	114$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	75c	110.9$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	463	20.5%95 W · 368 L	-68.1wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xde8e…29a6backed Yes	19c	103.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.63	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	34cpaid	-85%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd940…8d04backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-74%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37d8…36fdbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb529…91e1backed Yes	24c	89.14$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b39…e5cfbacked Yes	14c	78.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes	18c	72.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	99	14.1%14 W · 85 L	-8.1wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3779…6f7ebacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b92…4c1ebacked Yes	29c	59.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0c4…198fbacked No	70c	34.08$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.33	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Over $40M committed to the Hurupay public sale?this page
Over $100M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Yes won
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Yes won
Over $30M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $50M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $60M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $70M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $80M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Over $90M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Over $40M committed to the Hurupay public sale?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event