Token Launches · resolved market
Over $70M committed to the Hurupay public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61198cbbba6be0b719ec6bc6f33a26b2de12775b5d1adffa549c169d8d1aea7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…aa68backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac13…b93ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,374$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…8a66backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,900$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Yes | 1c | 1,569$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…b89ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,249$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 1,131$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,095$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,060$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 867.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 799.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 746.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 3c | 561.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed Yes | 3c | 492.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 3c | 433.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 325$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6585…2a0bbacked Yes | 8c | 225.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 190.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $70M committed to the Hurupay public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $50M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $90M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.