Token Launches · resolved market
Over $90M committed to the Hurupay public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4614ccb1bb63e921f4ab92cbd517c28a0b91bd88d165cdec8a7b2d2087075eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac13…b93ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…8a66backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 4c | 610.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 520$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 340$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 320.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…33a9backed Yes | 9c | 171.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $90M committed to the Hurupay public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $50M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $70M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Hurupay public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.