Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8ae7799f8d54ff80c66a8b64355f09f7930c5d9cbc872ee87dff553916c9ada

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,318,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,463,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,318,410 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 632 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	76c	34,108$26,090 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,018.21	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	10c	30,067$3,096 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,970.84	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No	53c	29,230$15,621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,620.98	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked No	1c	18,270$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd53…4d7ebacked No	6c	16,506$1,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,039.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	13c	14,089$1,887 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,201.3	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No	0c	12,084$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	14c	10,781$1,518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,262.54	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	55c	10,761$5,868 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,868.21	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	25c	9,842$2,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,423.24	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	15c	9,705$1,473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,231.75	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	66c	9,648$6,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,409.87	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c14…bd82backed No	9c	8,800$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	78c	8,728$6,841 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,887.86	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad86…b77bbacked No	6c	8,150$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	79c	7,865$6,215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,649.44	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked No	8c	7,564$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.27	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	79c	7,446$5,874 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,571.76	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	59c	7,392$4,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,995.71	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75b6…5b63backed No	10c	6,022$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	28c	5,470$1,535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,934.88	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	43c	5,406$2,342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,064.13	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf944…c249backed No	5c	5,100$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	30c	5,093$1,533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,560.44	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	49c	4,821$2,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,470.32	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	61c	4,800$2,937 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,937.26	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	33c	4,708$1,541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,541.06	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	73c	4,620$3,379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,240.87	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	19c	4,443$866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,576.99	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f38…e8f9backed No	9c	4,400$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1066…6075backed No	0c	4,281$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	36c	4,177$1,518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,658.55	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	66c	4,165$2,736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,428.34	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	18c	4,128$737 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,390.94	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb392…0b80backed Yes	64c	4,001$2,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,420.82	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…41b5backed No	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	68c	3,804$2,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,589.8	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	36c	3,745$1,361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,384.03	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b3f…9708backed Yes	45c	3,680$1,671 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,008.9	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	39c	3,572$1,385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,186.91	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	15c	3,442$523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,919.75	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	27c	3,293$873 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,420.3	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0aec…74fcbacked Yes	52c	3,075$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,474.65	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	33c	3,025$1,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,015.1	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4228…e9d8backed No	9c	3,000$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	40c	2,971$1,187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,784.38	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8157…f6ebbacked Yes	26c	2,963$782 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,181.06	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc4…089cbacked No	75c	2,944$2,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,221.73	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7c…3ecabacked No	9c	2,930$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.02	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	72c	2,920$2,108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$811.79	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	25c	2,909$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.83	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	34c	2,809$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,849.25	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d86fbacked No	71c	2,779$1,984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,983.54	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	67cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	35c	2,739$955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,783.73	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2af…c94bbacked Yes	26c	2,737$704 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,033.43	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked No	69c	2,651$1,828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,827.53	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	77c	2,534$1,949 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$584.97	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked No	0c	2,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No	3c	2,458$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.45	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+60.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	32c	2,450$786 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,663.91	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b99…eda5backed Yes	20c	2,444$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,950.91	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes	27c	2,438$652 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,786.32	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9349…8d0fbacked No	1c	2,405$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	34c	2,335$796 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,538.99	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No	1c	2,177$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.06	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1707…9b9fbacked Yes	21c	2,058$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,630.91	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	9c	2,047$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,868.31	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc304…97b4backed No	49c	1,988$969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$969.01	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No	8c	1,974$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.89	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	54c	1,972$1,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$899.82	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	78c	1,920$1,494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.65	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes	71c	1,895$1,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.36	118	34.7%41 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	72c	1,859$1,339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,338.7	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	19c	1,820$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,477.66	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5fa…45d2backed Yes	52c	1,775$926 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$849.13	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	41c	1,718$708 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,009.69	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	21c	1,690$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,342.91	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	18c	1,662$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,357.71	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x728d…116abacked Yes	43c	1,641$704 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$937.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	44c	1,605$701 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$903.28	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	19c	1,599$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,298.75	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	64c	1,597$1,022 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$574.66	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	55c	1,586$872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$871.67	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	23c	1,574$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,212.02	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	49c	1,571$770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800.25	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63f6…72ebbacked No	75c	1,560$1,171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,171.42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	9c	1,501$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,366.11	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,439.99	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed No	68c	1,462$992 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$992.06	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	21c	1,426$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,133.19	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdc…506ebacked Yes	52c	1,418$736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$682.67	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	5c	1,400$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,329.8	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	1,388$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,331.28	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	32c	1,375$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$938.3	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed No	3c	1,375$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	58c	1,352$789 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$562.79	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	80c	1,309$1,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,043.98	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	12c	1,253$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,098.35	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	25c	1,250$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$932.52	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	42c	1,223$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.53	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event