Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x728a67fe774a405bd8f5369d0687f9b943125e36999bbbfa3eb60cebb19c4443

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $635,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $348,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $635,352 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	42,847$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.38	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x941d…2197backed Yes	0c	24,104$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	22,844$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.81	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	15,243$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.83	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	14,900$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.2	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	11,801$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.75	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc394…0082backed Yes	2c	9,704$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.14	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	8,403$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	2c	8,098$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.57	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	7,971$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.34	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	3c	7,100$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	6,730$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.67	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	6,256$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.17	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	1c	5,863$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4efe…52bebacked Yes	7c	5,337$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	2c	5,046$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.93	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	1c	5,011$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.13	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe717…d380backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,844$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.25	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	4,838$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.27	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	3c	4,715$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.12	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	4,633$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.24	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	4,186$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	4,169$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.04	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	1c	4,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	3,945$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.07	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,718$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.38	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	3c	3,570$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.53	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,554$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.61	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b7…dcdcbacked Yes	2c	3,498$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.83	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	3,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	1c	2,857$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	1c	2,821$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	2c	2,485$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.54	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	2,457$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.06	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	2,330$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	2,095$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.97	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	2,040$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.95	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	2,010$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	1c	2,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	4c	2,000$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,965$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	5c	1,917$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df7…1c04backed Yes	1c	1,843$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	1c	1,579$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,559$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.61	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	1,453$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.22	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	2c	1,377$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.38	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,376$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.77	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	4c	1,327$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.79	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	2c	1,228$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.61	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	1,085$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.93	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	4c	1,037$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.77	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	1,034$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.53	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	6c	1,014$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x429b…2986backed Yes	2c	999.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	2c	993.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdef…1370backed Yes	3c	961.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	3c	904.97$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.38	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes	4c	900.97$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.24	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	2c	842.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes	2c	818$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.63	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa22f…c1d8backed Yes	2c	760.54$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes	4c	682.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.03	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	15cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	678.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	3c	674.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	2c	649.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db0…612fbacked Yes	2c	617.35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca65…a45bbacked Yes	4c	564.18$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	3c	557.43$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ac1…8942backed Yes	3c	524.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8bd…56b6backed Yes	3c	516.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	508.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.85	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d1…9daebacked Yes	4c	500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	4c	499.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42ef…340cbacked Yes	3c	463.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d7…84e0backed Yes	4c	460.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x026d…c112backed Yes	3c	450$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-87%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7909…ce63backed Yes	7c	443.66$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.95	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7823…2957backed Yes	3c	421.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+43.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	409.45$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.15	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf604…c02ebacked Yes	5c	399.81$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eda…b840backed Yes	4c	398.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd280…e66cbacked Yes	3c	392.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	4c	389.57$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	3c	378.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb0…94fbbacked Yes	4c	363.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	4c	357.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	4c	350$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a42…6aa2backed Yes	5c	308.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1010…4ee1backed Yes	3c	303.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1897…ae71backed Yes	6c	302.44$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe648…fb2ebacked Yes	5c	300.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event