Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd34e2b51753ac0968034b0dd70a298d0f1cbf5478f877cb46034998f548f57

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $452,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $316,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,866 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb26b…3791backed Yes	0c	86,600$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	12,221$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df4…0287backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,332$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	5,400$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.55	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	1c	5,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	1c	3,339$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.64	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	3,196$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.77	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	3,003$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.04	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	3,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	7c	3,000$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x434b…b05dbacked Yes	1c	2,163$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdc…13bcbacked Yes	2c	2,073$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	5c	1,858$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.9	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	2c	1,559$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.26	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	1,498$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.86	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,460$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	2c	1,420$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.61	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	1,204$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,197$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.28	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	2c	1,167$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	9c	1,016$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.01	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	3c	1,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.84	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	999.99$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	6c	944.78$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.62	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	932.12$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	837.22$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.93	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	5c	826$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	788.29$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.32	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	782.94$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	739.32$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.87	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	3c	660.47$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.73	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	7c	654.04$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.56	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	634.72$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	625.71$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2066…7841backed Yes	3c	582.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+376.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	6c	557.06$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	8c	499.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6620…75dabacked Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216c…47a4backed Yes	8c	400$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.35per pick	32cpaid	+65.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc631…768ebacked Yes	4c	386.57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	378.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa930…2800backed Yes	4c	336.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	6c	316.91$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x733e…859dbacked Yes	10c	304.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	8c	299.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…6d86backed Yes	7c	293.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	75	16%12 W · 63 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	4c	275$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3f…9708backed Yes	5c	273.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4a…a4e4backed Yes	5c	250$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	8c	245.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes	7c	242.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-47%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f2b…90cfbacked Yes	6c	242.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes	7c	205.71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.74	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc39e…1344backed Yes	9c	175.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-54%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	171.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event