Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0237d42dba4ab32a15972be089708b9c420b10d417cc89507eade319baf8fe0f

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $193,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,230

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,277 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	15,738$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.06	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	6,344$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.62	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6d…471bbacked Yes	0c	6,078$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3337…e9babacked Yes	0c	6,078$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,952$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,787$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,510$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.82	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	0c	3,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	2c	1,964$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.14	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,262$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.73	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	2c	1,244$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.81	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes	1c	1,238$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	1,230$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.71	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,049$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	1,041$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	1c	999.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	2c	999.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	1c	903.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	869.91$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	846.81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…768ebacked Yes	2c	634.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	3c	373.96$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked Yes	4c	262.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	100	48%48 W · 52 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event