Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de2c1b8ea26a03ae1fef5104f9d2884748f40dcd6f52a0186124f775f8e7fdc

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $549,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $298,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,946 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	74,310$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.63	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a15…8393backed Yes	0c	60,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	0c	19,020$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.67	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df4…d1a1backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	8,123$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.89	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	12c	5,614$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	5,309$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.05	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	4c	4,500$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	3,978$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.8	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	5c	3,166$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.46	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	6c	3,088$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.16	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	3,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9591…19abbacked Yes	7c	2,878$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.83	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,648$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.29	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,550$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	12c	2,350$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.65	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	2,273$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	2,239$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.58	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	2,208$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.34	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,123$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.59	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	2,076$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.48	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	8c	2,074$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.95	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	8c	2,041$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.31	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	2,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	7c	2,000$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,750$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes	12c	1,685$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-83.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	8c	1,625$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.36	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,621$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.01	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	7c	1,592$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.9	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	1,516$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	9c	1,500$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	11c	1,500$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	1,482$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.26	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	2c	1,443$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,433$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	2c	1,340$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	9c	1,319$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.55	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	2c	1,300$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	7c	1,299$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.99	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa1…b815backed Yes	8c	1,283$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	7c	1,273$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.43	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	14c	1,255$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.38	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,233$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.38	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e84…d31cbacked Yes	5c	1,214$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f4c…95b8backed Yes	11c	1,193$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.88	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	8c	1,091$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.29	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc32…3290backed Yes	10c	1,091$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.06	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	5c	1,060$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.12	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	2c	1,012$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes	9c	1,009$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	3c	1,009$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	1,008$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bfb…7632backed Yes	12c	1,003$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-35%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	11c	1,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	5c	1,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes	10c	992.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.76	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	10c	988.09$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.34	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	13c	935.9$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3f…9708backed Yes	17c	923.93$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.53	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x163c…9ef3backed Yes	3c	893.17$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.67	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6201…d386backed Yes	14c	879.67$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	11c	870.08$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.67	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	6c	848.22$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	12c	835.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	2c	831.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x868b…3627backed Yes	12c	831.68$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+97.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	828.24$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.99	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	824.66$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.59	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb914…d12ebacked Yes	12c	812.04$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Yes	15c	800$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.19	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.17per pick	10cpaid	+196.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5df9…be65backed Yes	14c	800$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.34	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes	6c	800$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	13c	798.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	8c	798$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.54	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe227…bb41backed Yes	3c	796.23$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	12c	690$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.8	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	5c	686.25$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.78	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc39e…1344backed Yes	13c	650.82$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-54%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	12c	626.07$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	600$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	5c	600$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.68	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	600$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	6c	550$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.38	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	6c	549.71$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.26	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46fc…8f78backed Yes	11c	528.88$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7190…287abacked Yes	10c	511.25$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes	4c	500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	10c	500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	10c	499.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfa…faa4backed Yes	18c	499.78$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	11c	485.18$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.27	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	12c	473.35$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.34	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes	9c	444.44$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-47%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event