Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x005c5e68481bdf5c8d0654076f2db43a9658d2a6667aa414adfea3a93be66ac4

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $856,663
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $567,597

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $856,663 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1cdc…506ebacked Yes	0c	75,009$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	39,932$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.93	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	36,968$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.37	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	0c	22,000$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.17	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c18…0abbbacked Yes	0c	19,115$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.23	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	15,838$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.68	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4671…bd77backed Yes	0c	15,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	12,864$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.68	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f36…1a69backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	8,090$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.02	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bbe…7202backed Yes	3c	8,066$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.16	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff1…4803backed Yes	4c	7,567$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.22	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed9…11f0backed Yes	0c	5,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	4,850$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.45	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	4,332$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.77	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e2…c86fbacked Yes	1c	4,298$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc677…677abacked Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9591…19abbacked Yes	1c	3,863$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.83	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	3,823$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	3,769$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.54	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	5c	3,571$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.1	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	3c	3,001$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.74	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	4c	3,000$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	3,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,521$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.9	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	2,508$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.42	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	8c	2,500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2b…f826backed Yes	2c	2,463$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.64	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+16%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb20…48b5backed Yes	1c	2,419$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	6c	2,350$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.13	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	4c	2,300$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.7	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa1…ee18backed Yes	2c	2,200$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.89	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+3.2wins	+0.23per pick	56cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	2,046$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	9c	1,986$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.06	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	1,907$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.38	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,886$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.1	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5b…db63backed Yes	12c	1,841$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.29	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	2c	1,775$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	1,718$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.43	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c68…87abbacked Yes	1c	1,682$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	1,598$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.77	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,564$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.88	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	15c	1,550$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	5c	1,513$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.33	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa249…12fabacked Yes	2c	1,358$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.18	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c1…8101backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,214$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	1,172$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d19…0d91backed Yes	2c	1,117$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe432…a45cbacked Yes	1c	1,116$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	1,101$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	11c	1,083$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.34	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,056$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	12c	1,015$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.35	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	9c	999.99$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes	11c	999.92$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.55	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	15c	995.82$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	989.91$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.17	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes	13c	975.69$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.84	80	26.3%21 W · 59 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf818…b2c3backed Yes	1c	948.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df9…be65backed Yes	9c	861.93$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.57	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	848.54$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	13c	846.41$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	6c	834.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.1	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8106…cf06backed Yes	2c	825.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	7c	825$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.93	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02e6…49ddbacked Yes	3c	777.97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	13c	763.36$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…1debbacked Yes	5c	714.81$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	7c	707.47$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.06	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	14c	692.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	679.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x434b…b05dbacked Yes	4c	679.34$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.24	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	17c	588.6$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc39e…1344backed Yes	8c	581.3$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-54%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad4…02e0backed Yes	2c	547.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	500$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…3ae6backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	7c	473.2$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.17	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75c8…d43cbacked Yes	4c	457.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa817…f9d6backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6716…9e98backed Yes	2c	440.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	11c	407.14$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…6d86backed Yes	13c	405.12$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.87	75	16%12 W · 63 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6620…75dabacked Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	4c	400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	9c	378.64$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.71	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	8c	349.13$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.61	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event