Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x015331b0ce077fffe289da709a0f5619e40ff0f4cd112ea486b75baef14a9093

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $525,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $259,327

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $525,165 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	30,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	28,415$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.02	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	25,111$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.43	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	13,954$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.93	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	1c	13,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	12,639$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	9,553$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.02	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes	1c	8,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	6,018$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.75	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	5,666$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.32	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	4c	5,281$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.43	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	4,905$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.3	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	4,503$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.33	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	0c	4,400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	3c	4,337$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.12	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,193$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.35	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	3,912$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.22	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,168$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.62	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	2,797$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	3c	2,500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccd2…4d2fbacked Yes	4c	2,359$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	1c	2,146$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	2,100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.51	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,056$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.67	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	2,054$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.16	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	1,996$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,976$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.19	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	3c	1,800$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	1c	1,702$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.11	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	3c	1,500$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,493$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.59	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	3c	1,400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.07	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	2c	1,383$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.05	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	1,354$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.59	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	3c	1,328$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.32	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa22f…c1d8backed Yes	2c	1,206$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	2c	1,196$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	2c	1,155$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.82	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x631e…fb4cbacked Yes	2c	1,113$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.01	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	1c	1,041$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,022$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x429b…2986backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	4c	999.98$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	3c	960.07$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.9	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes	2c	828.02$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.37	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	765.22$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.07	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes	3c	699.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	1c	675$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eda…b840backed Yes	4c	512.09$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	4c	501.58$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1829…2250backed Yes	3c	399.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c47…8598backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	5c	203.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event