Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x433150938acf0486e2675c2b43686f706ea2c845d58e734fa60ccf73c2d4e110

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $567,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $375,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $567,838 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	81,257$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.51	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	25,553$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	22,086$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.4	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	8,663$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.7	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	4c	4,400$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	3,982$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.92	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,500$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	4c	3,336$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.27	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	15c	3,333$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.93	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	3,138$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e84…d31cbacked Yes	1c	3,018$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	7c	3,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.95	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	3c	3,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	2,637$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.86	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	2,595$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.62	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	2,484$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	8c	2,460$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.61	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	13c	2,344$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.52	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	4c	2,271$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.86	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,173$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,072$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.73	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x631e…fb4cbacked Yes	5c	1,990$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.78	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	1,982$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.69	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	1c	1,818$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,750$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	8c	1,607$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.5	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	8c	1,500$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	2c	1,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.39	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,489$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.3	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b7…dcdcbacked Yes	10c	1,477$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.24	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	1,474$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.49	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	8c	1,442$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.34	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,433$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	1,333$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.01	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,319$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	13c	1,302$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	7c	1,300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.68	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	6c	1,274$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.15	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7190…287abacked Yes	2c	1,250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	1,249$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.15	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	7c	1,167$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.04	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa1…b815backed Yes	9c	1,152$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,122$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.38	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	12c	1,081$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf80…9163backed Yes	2c	1,066$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	3c	1,002$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	10c	999.94$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.07	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe227…bb41backed Yes	2c	973.85$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9591…19abbacked Yes	9c	929.23$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	3c	872.89$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	849.68$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.28	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa249…12fabacked Yes	6c	814.55$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.25	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	6c	802.65$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.63	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	798$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.82	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes	5c	750$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f9…3970backed Yes	8c	750$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df9…be65backed Yes	14c	731.17$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.02	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	700.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	699.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	13c	687.06$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.8	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	16c	644.79$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	7c	636.62$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.24	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	617.11$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f4c…95b8backed Yes	9c	615.33$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.38	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	13c	589$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.45	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	8c	576.36$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.34	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c2…86c8backed Yes	12c	513.5$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.62	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.25per pick	39cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7655…c1c7backed Yes	4c	510.01$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-91.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	9c	510$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.1	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	507.67$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes	7c	500.14$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	9c	499.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	499.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x279c…3ae6backed Yes	12c	499.97$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	490.68$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.74	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes	2c	480$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b8…e9f3backed Yes	11c	479.33$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	7c	451.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.83	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c1…8101backed Yes	7c	445.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ee…086dbacked Yes	2c	445.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	7c	430$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes	3c	420$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ee3…023abacked Yes	7c	415.81$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.35	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6620…75dabacked Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05dc…967ebacked Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	367$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3333…6d86backed Yes	14c	361.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	75	16%12 W · 63 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	7c	350$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	342.2$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.73	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46fc…8f78backed Yes	12c	340.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes	10c	334.28$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.43	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd3…abacbacked Yes	5c	305.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event