Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1100fca90f6cde553899ce7eb631035114ebef0b0ddd15d8bd720b295fcd0271

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $565,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $328,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,224 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	45,552$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.55	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	24,359$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.68	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9add…3acdbacked Yes	0c	12,628$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	8,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,986$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.62	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	7,370$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9591…19abbacked Yes	0c	6,853$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	1c	4,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df4…0287backed Yes	0c	3,402$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,358$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	5c	3,168$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.6	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	3,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	2,912$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.35	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	8c	2,500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	4c	2,242$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.66	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df9…be65backed Yes	7c	2,199$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.09	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	2,053$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.5	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	10c	2,000$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.28	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	1c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,870$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.44	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	1,735$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.15	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	9c	1,700$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,694$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.23	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	8c	1,629$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.93	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,584$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.44	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	3c	1,524$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.72	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	1c	1,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	1c	1,452$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,404$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.22	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	5c	1,342$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.02	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	12c	1,330$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.22	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	1,293$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.11	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	2c	1,222$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.52	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4835…c692backed Yes	2c	1,185$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	5c	1,102$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	15c	1,027$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes	11c	1,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	9c	999.98$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	3c	999.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc39e…1344backed Yes	6c	867.26$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-54%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbc…1a98backed Yes	9c	799.97$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+65.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	795$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.92	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes	9c	769.55$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.65	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-47%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	670.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.45	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x434b…b05dbacked Yes	5c	528.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x279c…3ae6backed Yes	10c	499.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	8c	481.51$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.95	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	4c	464.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	6c	427.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	12c	406.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6620…75dabacked Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	8c	327.75$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	6c	320.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	8c	320.26$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ac…8460backed Yes	11c	312.9$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.34	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	+117.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d6…b696backed Yes	7c	240$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc5…3367backed Yes	11c	237.09$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	5c	220$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6152…d8f3backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed Yes	8c	180.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	10c	174.63$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.29	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	10c	163.49$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	12c	156.19$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad3…cda6backed Yes	11c	152.86$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	14c	144.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	12c	140.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.82	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b3f…9708backed Yes	11c	119.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b7…db6fbacked Yes	13c	116.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.16	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a25…0eecbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0d5…bac0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f2b…90cfbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7228…e815backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5813…7279backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf384…0543backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…04e4backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4d…77febacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da0…4537backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked Yes	12c	92.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	100	48%48 W · 52 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6faf…c996backed Yes	12c	91.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event