TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x65ac…8460

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 52 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid+117.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$34.34
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$47.63
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$40.74
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+2,288.1%+$547.88
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$22.59
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$64.51
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10.66
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$11.35
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$11.64
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$51.42
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$28.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$15.36
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+38.9%+$5.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$39.31
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+44.9%+$7.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Packers vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$12.8
Commanders vs. Dolphinsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$23.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+31.2%+$4.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South Africa win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+25%+$10.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Nova Esports GC vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3)backed Nova Esports GC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$23.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Predatorsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$22.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Carolina vs. Texas A&Mbacked South Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$62
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.