AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef43fec2cc0db75bfb0ed763f545f4a04edce27a575816a9031c2603fc8c11a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 13c | 4,821$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.03 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 1c | 4,333$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 6c | 2,963$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.78 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 30c | 1,904$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.37 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…6943backed Yes | 27c | 1,829$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 3c | 1,219$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,189$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c05…3e49backed Yes | 1c | 1,138$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 17c | 1,072$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.97 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,003$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…3dbfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…1979backed Yes | 8c | 999.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 974.04$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 13c | 909.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 27c | 743.88$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.41 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 17c | 731.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…8460backed Yes | 33c | 616.27$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 20c | 612.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.11 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 21c | 604.07$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 600$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 62c | 529.19$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.47 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 30c | 528.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 4c | 525.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…3bf2backed Yes | 25c | 499.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…a000backed Yes | 21c | 480.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 27c | 461.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 33c | 427.42$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 15c | 411$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 42c | 405.93$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…96febacked Yes | 25c | 395.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…4966backed Yes | 24c | 384.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 23c | 379.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…1d9ebacked Yes | 27c | 371.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…8bf1backed Yes | 24c | 314.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 76c | 287.82$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 11c | 249.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 63c | 244.44$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 219.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 208.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…e5e0backed Yes | 37c | 204.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 80c | 203.61$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…471abacked No | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…a949backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…3105backed Yes | 52c | 193.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…377fbacked Yes | 25c | 189.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked No | 45c | 170.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed No | 62c | 169.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed No | 50c | 165.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…507fbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 18c | 148.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 53c | 140$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 35c | 139.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 133.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 16c | 127.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 25c | 125.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…0274backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…4422backed Yes | 21c | 95.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 93.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…0a7dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…9c2ebacked Yes | 62c | 72.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…f7a8backed Yes | 20c | 69.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0d25backed No | 74c | 67.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Yes | 23c | 64.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…be64backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6075…a4ecbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…1d12backed Yes | 26c | 57.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 23c | 53.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…63b2backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…6962backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…14bcbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ac…a533backed Yes | 29c | 48.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…f658backed No | 80c | 40.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…457fbacked No | 63c | 37.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…6562backed Yes | 37c | 36.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 34.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…e621backed No | 68c | 30.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…5ffbbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…555dbacked No | 68c | 27.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…544abacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed No | 80c | 23.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443a…8afcbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…0244backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…c290backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…4461backed No | 76c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…8600backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?this page
- Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?Yes won
- Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Neon - Money Talks be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.