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AI · resolved market

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e2e…d589backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf152…fefbbacked No1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No22c3,364$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.286453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes68c2,197$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.432821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No3c2,070$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.67219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No14c1,861$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.833842.1%16 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed No8c1,464$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9511836.4%43 W · 75 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No26c1,217$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8225122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No21c1,060$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.114820.8%10 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0366…3dbfbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c999.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d1…d015backed Yes77c992.93$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c848.49$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8746238.7%179 W · 283 L-33.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6513…8c10backed No4c790.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2610034%34 W · 66 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…3bd7backed Yes63c773.4$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes65c662.22$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No34c659.23$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.428041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No23c606.68$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8848138%183 W · 298 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x885c…9cdabacked Yes79c587.17$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No27c586.81$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9225931.7%82 W · 177 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes57c523.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.66434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03d4…46d6backed Yes79c518.47$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454619.6%9 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021813.3%29 W · 189 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes61c499.97$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes62c492.57$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.12759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc193…872dbacked Yes66c480$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes52c473.1$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Yes73c459.85$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.16683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No20c451.6$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.324358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63e2…5579backed Yes72c418.37$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No24c418.01$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9273635.6%262 W · 474 L-58.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No27c417.34$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1145950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No14c414.49$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.326136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc58…1dffbacked Yes75c400.11$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed No31c399.97$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.991154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…9195backed Yes75c399.12$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes74c392.72$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.111258.3%7 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick75cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes75c353.33$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.333100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa359…a882backed No9c347.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-72%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No36c342.32$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.567852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No10c336.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7920418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0732…c290backed Yes74c301.47$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe23…1a6abacked Yes67c300.34$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.34944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x178c…7083backed Yes68c292.28$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c292.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.141,3716.8%93 W · 1,278 L-21.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes70c286.17$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.171154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No21c275.36$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3412639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes39c240.87$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No32c233.74$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2257426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No32c227.52$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes62c225.06$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc2…da94backed No22c224.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb96d…defebacked Yes78c224.96$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f1…e7e0backed No59c218.61$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+121.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b5…6562backed No17c212.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.091030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes69c179.57$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.52425%6 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x85f9…58f0backed Yes67c177.23$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8b…aa7dbacked Yes66c173.28$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.28366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2be8…5e2dbacked Yes71c172.23$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134f…cdb6backed No18c163.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+165%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe428…7a88backed Yes79c161.06$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.259548.4%46 W · 49 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x007f…e3adbacked Yes73c156$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes53c150.2$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.796841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4de4…db35backed Yes79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ae…8db9backed No21c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849a…c189backed Yes67c149.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes78c149.07$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.252540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No20c147.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6428828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes70c142.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.83132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ddf…8b77backed Yes76c131.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed Yes73c131.14$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.762142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe43f…8150backed Yes69c125.49$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6878…bec2backed Yes66c121.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92e5…d129backed Yes70c119.31$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.542259.1%13 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+78.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes62c118.72$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.892450%12 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x217f…b890backed Yes64c116.88$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f0…2923backed No38c115.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac3…eda2backed Yes59c114.35$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.18825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8a…9f2abacked No18c111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.451533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+91.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d71…1ceebacked Yes57c102.98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcb…9540backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd042…7198backed Yes76c98.25$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed No28c96.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b87…aa96backed Yes58c95.05$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No30c93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.758837.5%33 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4396…f0e1backed Yes55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a6…e0c2backed No54c87.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.361145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2245…d89abacked Yes80c87$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe350…0274backed Yes59c86$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8060…fcc3backed Yes68c85.47$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d85…0e0abacked Yes80c84.39$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d29…414dbacked Yes62c82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.161376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e48…47ecbacked Yes67c80.12$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec7…2762backed Yes78c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x819e…e967backed No19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No19c78.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.048551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.