AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1a352ee1a5410a21e3cff4f247711aa3b6dad6d853ce752984d23e7874a068c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e2e…d589backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…fefbbacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 22c | 3,364$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.28 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 68c | 2,197$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.43 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 3c | 2,070$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 14c | 1,861$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.83 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 8c | 1,464$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 1,217$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.82 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 1,060$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.11 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…3dbfbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed Yes | 77c | 992.93$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 848.49$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.87 | 462 | 38.7%179 W · 283 L | -33.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 4c | 790.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…3bd7backed Yes | 63c | 773.4$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…b538backed Yes | 65c | 662.22$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 34c | 659.23$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.42 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 606.68$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 481 | 38%183 W · 298 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885c…9cdabacked Yes | 79c | 587.17$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 586.81$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 259 | 31.7%82 W · 177 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 57c | 523.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d4…46d6backed Yes | 79c | 518.47$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 218 | 13.3%29 W · 189 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…377fbacked Yes | 61c | 499.97$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 62c | 492.57$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.1 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked Yes | 66c | 480$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 52c | 473.1$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked Yes | 73c | 459.85$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 20c | 451.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…5579backed Yes | 72c | 418.37$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 418.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 736 | 35.6%262 W · 474 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 27c | 417.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 14c | 414.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc58…1dffbacked Yes | 75c | 400.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed No | 31c | 399.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…9195backed Yes | 75c | 399.12$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 74c | 392.72$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed Yes | 75c | 353.33$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed No | 9c | 347.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 36c | 342.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 10c | 336.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…c290backed Yes | 74c | 301.47$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…1a6abacked Yes | 67c | 300.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…7083backed Yes | 68c | 292.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 292.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1,371 | 6.8%93 W · 1,278 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…1d08backed Yes | 70c | 286.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 21c | 275.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 39c | 240.87$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 233.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 32c | 227.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 62c | 225.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc2…da94backed No | 22c | 224.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96d…defebacked Yes | 78c | 224.96$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f1…e7e0backed No | 59c | 218.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…6562backed No | 17c | 212.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 69c | 179.57$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…58f0backed Yes | 67c | 177.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…aa7dbacked Yes | 66c | 173.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…5e2dbacked Yes | 71c | 172.23$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed No | 18c | 163.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +165%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…7a88backed Yes | 79c | 161.06$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…e3adbacked Yes | 73c | 156$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 53c | 150.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4de4…db35backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…8db9backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…c189backed Yes | 67c | 149.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 78c | 149.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 20c | 147.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 70c | 142.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddf…8b77backed Yes | 76c | 131.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 73c | 131.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…8150backed Yes | 69c | 125.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed Yes | 70c | 119.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 62c | 118.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…b890backed Yes | 64c | 116.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…2923backed No | 38c | 115.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed Yes | 59c | 114.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked No | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…1ceebacked Yes | 57c | 102.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…9540backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 76c | 98.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed No | 28c | 96.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…aa96backed Yes | 58c | 95.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4396…f0e1backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 54c | 87.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2245…d89abacked Yes | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…0274backed Yes | 59c | 86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8060…fcc3backed Yes | 68c | 85.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…0e0abacked Yes | 80c | 84.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…414dbacked Yes | 62c | 82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…47ecbacked Yes | 67c | 80.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec7…2762backed Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 19c | 78.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?this page
- Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Neon - Money Talks be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.