Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbf62e4ae8da845fd51ed3c444357536ba7e81c711f7b8e55ff79244aac110a0

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,011,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $598,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,011,886 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	170,045$6,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,306.14	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	18c	35,685$6,542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,542.27	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	22c	32,181$7,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,043.63	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes	0c	30,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	20c	27,373$5,551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,551.04	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	10c	22,310$2,307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,306.64	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	12c	20,325$2,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,344.31	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	80c	20,083$16,062 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,021.16	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes	12c	17,492$2,029 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,028.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	14,287$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bd5…5a1fbacked Yes	0c	14,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd751…742ebacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	16c	9,200$1,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,516.93	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	16c	9,084$1,489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,489.14	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes	10c	8,513$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.84	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+101.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	49c	8,398$4,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,100	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	21c	7,340$1,505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,505	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	7,256$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.72	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	7cpaid	+90%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed Yes	35c	6,023$2,105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,104.52	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	26c	5,568$1,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,439.7	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	40c	5,294$2,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100.78	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	18c	5,120$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940.23	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	19c	5,047$955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$954.84	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	12c	5,000$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.97	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Yes	21c	5,000$1,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,043.63	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	3c	4,957$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.81	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	21c	4,832$1,029 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029.21	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	77c	4,519$3,467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,052.17	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	13c	4,500$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.17	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Yes	1c	4,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	8c	3,825$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.02	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	23c	3,750$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870.14	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	18c	3,430$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.75	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	31c	3,192$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	29c	3,174$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$905.23	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	6c	3,100$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.2	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4781…f97bbacked Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	22c	2,895$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.69	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	20c	2,870$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.84	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	2,831$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbef3…04d7backed Yes	2c	2,767$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.86	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5ed…9374backed Yes	1c	2,761$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.34	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	13c	2,734$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	19c	2,647$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	30c	2,603$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$773.17	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	23c	2,545$586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$586.02	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…a427backed Yes	1c	2,476$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	56c	2,445$1,374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,071.26	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	14c	2,418$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.6	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	21c	2,379$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.6	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	13c	2,275$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.47	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	72c	2,246$1,622 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$624.6	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	34c	2,210$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.73	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	2,206$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.38	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	7c	2,199$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.02	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe955…1989backed Yes	14c	2,110$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.76	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	12c	2,000$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	1c	1,975$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	3c	1,938$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.09	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	29c	1,857$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.57	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	78c	1,853$1,447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.61	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	1,800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d8c…26e9backed No	79c	1,796$1,411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$385.56	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	28c	1,770$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.95	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510d…f7d8backed Yes	29c	1,735$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	28c	1,628$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	12c	1,614$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.38	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	32c	1,599$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.44	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	69c	1,568$1,084 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.22	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	23c	1,553$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.46	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe328…f4a3backed Yes	17c	1,542$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	67c	1,507$1,013 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$493.83	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	22c	1,505$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.13	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	13c	1,500$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.52	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	30c	1,497$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.13	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes	24c	1,476$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.74	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e2…75aebacked Yes	28c	1,466$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	36c	1,465$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.06	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8479…37f8backed Yes	6c	1,429$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	13c	1,401$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.97	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed No	56c	1,372$774 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$597.3	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	15c	1,364$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.13	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	26c	1,356$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.56	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	21c	1,350$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.05	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,341$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.99	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d2…ce2abacked Yes	4c	1,334$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.76	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	1,304$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.22	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	9c	1,299$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.78	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee3…023abacked Yes	26c	1,257$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.84	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49df…d594backed Yes	2c	1,252$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	17c	1,243$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.88	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	16c	1,215$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.86	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	14c	1,200$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.8	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	6c	1,195$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.9	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92f…a832backed Yes	23c	1,181$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.56	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	26c	1,169$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.8	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	1,150$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.21	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event