Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb198f0d76ae882fb6636e714d09a07c3c25835de755447e7b4256b8b1d5a87e4

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $270,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $216,201

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,803 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	17,830$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.13	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	0c	14,233$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.97	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	10c	3,198$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.73	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	9c	3,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.99	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	10c	999.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb303…205bbacked Yes	11c	999.98$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	11c	900$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes	6c	849.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	4c	773.78$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.15	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	701.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	11c	666.67$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…8d1cbacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-3.8wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce70…22dabacked Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+73.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f6…1d82backed Yes	2c	439.59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	5c	399.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	10c	399.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	12c	322.8$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.74	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	299.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb848…7113backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2b…3994backed Yes	8c	204.63$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe97backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e6…e673backed Yes	11c	151.22$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.61	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-77%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x045e…7515backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event