Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1b5d6400d3285b95a07c272d8eab53eb2f19941a3cb922b460fa42e62d94490

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $334,417
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $245,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $334,417 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	14,327$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.07	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	10,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	6,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	9c	4,720$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.86	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x079b…2fe2backed Yes	1c	4,475$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	24c	4,353$1,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,034.84	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,748$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	6c	2,390$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.6	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	1c	2,205$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	1c	2,047$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	12c	2,010$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.1	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.99	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	15c	1,991$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.64	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	1,550$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.3	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	15c	1,400$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6faa…5a5bbacked Yes	13c	1,345$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	10c	1,111$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.1	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	14c	1,000$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.06	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19b…478dbacked Yes	15c	999.98$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2031…2325backed Yes	15c	942.99$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.45	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	1c	934.71$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	3c	868.39$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.37	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes	14c	780.73$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.45	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…bde0backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	77c	700$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	13c	686.13$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.7	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	625$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	15c	553.65$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.18	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	547.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	19c	526$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	19c	525.4$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	5c	498.75$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.27	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	10c	350$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f22…f473backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	15c	270$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e5…9751backed Yes	14c	249.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	14c	230$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.2	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5205…8c98backed Yes	15c	220$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…4f9fbacked Yes	15c	204.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	9c	204.22$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.38	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x755b…f4f5backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe97backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…eb34backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf01d…c198backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	13c	199.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc2…878abacked Yes	12c	185.71$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3e…eb6cbacked Yes	15c	166.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23a2…5643backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34e6…e673backed Yes	13c	134.22$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-77%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef38…02e2backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e18…afc3backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb86d…de7fbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63a8…8f00backed Yes	15c	110$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	108.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	73cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…7a9ebacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5450…bff8backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd7…5403backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79e9…91f5backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f82…a195backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe82d…a7abbacked Yes	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	90$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes	15c	77.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0d…e0fdbacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11ab…71d8backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No	79c	41.76$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	62cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event