Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ecfda7fa40038f256d5313e5de4f416c15bfa34f869beffef338d5c33853391

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $890,321
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $497,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $890,321 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 288 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	69,903$5,965 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,965.08	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	68,660$2,961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,960.6	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	42,853$3,289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,288.98	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	17c	31,501$5,309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,309.07	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	6c	25,244$1,458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,458.04	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	19,151$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	17,299$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	16c	15,460$2,451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,451.19	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	1c	12,431$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.94	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bf5…46e4backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	4c	9,192$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.45	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	9,094$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.69	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	12c	8,470$1,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,018.69	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	2c	8,418$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.63	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	27c	8,372$2,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,300	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	8c	7,953$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	6,447$866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$866.31	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes	1c	5,900$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	251	27.1%68 W · 183 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	14c	5,666$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$767.75	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	23c	5,291$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	13c	5,017$647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.16	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	4,790$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.37	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	4,709$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.77	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	18c	4,589$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.79	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked No	74c	4,413$3,284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,129.91	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	4,060$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	13c	3,883$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.25	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	9c	3,646$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a30…f47dbacked Yes	19c	3,514$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.17	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	3,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	18c	3,395$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.24	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	78c	3,305$2,567 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.95	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	4c	3,294$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	14c	3,172$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.84	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	11c	2,903$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.59	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	14c	2,876$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	2c	2,688$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.88	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,670$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.52	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	16c	2,653$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.13	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b3…211fbacked Yes	12c	2,500$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	10c	2,499$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.92	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	13c	2,476$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.42	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Yes	12c	2,400$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.66	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes	30c	2,372$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,357$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.14	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	15c	2,197$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.79	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fda…147ebacked Yes	28c	2,080$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	11c	2,039$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.76	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed Yes	19c	2,015$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.9	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	16c	2,007$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.1	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	7c	1,980$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.56	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes	19c	1,541$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	10c	1,540$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.5	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc13d…4bdabacked Yes	14c	1,520$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.74	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	13c	1,500$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.6	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf26…6f4dbacked Yes	1c	1,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	5c	1,421$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.5	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	1,419$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.87	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	16c	1,362$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.69	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	23c	1,357$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.5	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	13c	1,338$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.25	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	21c	1,336$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.71	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	2c	1,325$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.68	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	9c	1,300$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.9	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74fc…f12bbacked Yes	16c	1,265$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	14c	1,257$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	12c	1,146$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.82	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x609e…a64fbacked Yes	22c	1,141$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	18c	1,110$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	9c	1,105$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	13c	1,091$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.14	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	17c	1,051$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.08	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	15c	1,043$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.18	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	12c	1,010$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.83	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	13c	1,001$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.13	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	17c	1,000$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	30c	1,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.59	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x10ae…878cbacked Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b13…2c26backed Yes	15c	974.52$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	13c	941.11$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed Yes	21c	936.15$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4835…c692backed Yes	13c	899.99$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.9	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	23c	865.8$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	16c	859.95$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.33	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1e…0f8abacked Yes	13c	855.77$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.02	62	27.4%17 W · 45 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4174…9008backed Yes	8c	851.66$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.94	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	8c	823.65$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.67	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	16c	819.99$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.2	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes	14c	813.34$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.83	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	12c	800.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	12c	800.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.77	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	799.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.34	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	11c	799.98$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.92	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	16c	799$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.43	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf30…f178backed Yes	16c	758.54$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	13c	758$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.74	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	15c	750.64$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf8…5ec7backed Yes	13c	750$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	12c	728.5$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.24	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event