Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94f0232198e93ce77ba9dc013749ab58534c6a09ea5b2bab7f3ad9d70ca9d6b1

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $616,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $390,707

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $616,026 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	119,182$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.18	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	28,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9469…31c9backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bf5…46e4backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	2c	10,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1780…1260backed Yes	2c	9,292$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.99	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	7,948$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…2599backed Yes	0c	6,690$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	0c	5,255$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.42	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	4,684$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.64	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	4,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,343$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.46	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	3,197$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.98	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,093$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.37	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	3,043$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.84	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	3,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	6c	2,471$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3067…b8e5backed Yes	2c	2,456$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.43	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	11c	2,407$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.95	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	2,385$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.01	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	2,337$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.08	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	5c	2,108$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.29	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	6c	2,015$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	12c	2,006$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	1,946$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.72	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	1,910$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,438$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.41	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	1,429$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.78	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,270$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.48	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	11c	1,111$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.43	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	1c	1,095$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	8c	1,030$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.67	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	999.95$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	5c	999.92$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.21	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	6c	770$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.07	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	6c	700.48$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	9c	699.99$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	6c	644.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x376f…2bb7backed Yes	8c	623.1$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.29	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	7c	600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes	9c	539.24$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	179	24.6%44 W · 135 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	9c	531.42$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.76	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	5c	483.92$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958f…7d5abacked Yes	4c	464.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	444.39$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	11c	438.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	11c	437.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	9c	427.59$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa594…006cbacked Yes	7c	388.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	6c	362.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52d…fa66backed Yes	9c	346.37$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	3c	343.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	4c	324.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	11c	324.56$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	9c	304.01$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb2b…3994backed Yes	6c	300$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d70…f5bbbacked Yes	7c	283.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	280.21$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.92	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9a…9738backed Yes	7c	275.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc61…6eedbacked Yes	7c	255.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	6c	230.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	9c	224.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	9c	220.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x800b…a0c4backed Yes	10c	208.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes	10c	198.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8481…d87abacked Yes	10c	196.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes	11c	187.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bae…5199backed Yes	10c	183.18$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ce…82c3backed Yes	8c	159.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	11c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…295abacked Yes	10c	100.23$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event