Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97f058249370f8cc4486e196f55b67fc1b2678e25b5b303559c54fcd016a63f5

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $883,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $849,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $883,582 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 545 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	72c	39,499$28,485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,013.44	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	17c	28,704$4,775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,928.39	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	15,552$1,456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,095.33	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed No	37c	14,416$5,298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,298.4	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No	0c	12,564$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	35c	11,787$4,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,706.95	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	21c	11,590$2,398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,192.64	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	41c	10,064$4,109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,954.86	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	21c	9,799$2,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,699.26	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	77c	9,534$7,355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,354.84	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	25c	6,956$1,708 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,248.22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	37c	6,913$2,573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,573.37	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	27c	6,320$1,681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,680.94	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	22c	6,284$1,378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,905.32	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	29c	5,614$1,617 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,997.02	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	72c	5,302$3,809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,809.02	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	30c	5,261$1,596 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,664.55	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Yes	21c	4,724$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,724.34	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	34c	4,526$1,555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,970.56	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed Yes	42c	4,490$1,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,582.73	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	21c	3,890$809 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,080.88	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes	47c	3,703$1,737 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,966.3	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	26c	3,679$954 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,724.3	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	18c	3,670$647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,022.61	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No	6c	3,666$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.36	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	14c	3,555$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,053.01	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	3,344$2,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,332.54	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	62c	3,269$2,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,034.88	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	78c	3,205$2,503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$702.44	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	31c	3,193$977 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,216.28	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	53c	3,143$1,664 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,478.95	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	39c	3,066$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,866.06	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	22c	3,019$655 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,364.26	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	25c	3,013$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,263.27	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7950…1d42backed No	53c	2,937$1,562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,562.14	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed No	7c	2,921$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.94	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	27c	2,902$769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,132.61	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe955…1989backed Yes	50c	2,862$1,426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,436.02	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	49c	2,843$1,403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,440.36	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	12c	2,789$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,465.26	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	24c	2,565$611 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,953.88	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	25c	2,555$644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,910.95	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	35c	2,462$871 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,590.48	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	31c	2,354$740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,613.89	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	24c	2,283$559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,723.81	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6203…f8bbbacked Yes	54c	2,267$1,228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,039.21	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+84.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	31c	2,084$644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,440.49	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	32c	2,038$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,377.28	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a9…9ae9backed No	1c	2,005$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	51c	1,995$1,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$977.25	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	9c	1,874$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,714.22	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No	75c	1,720$1,293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,292.68	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510d…f7d8backed Yes	30c	1,693$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,192.62	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	77c	1,678$1,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,284.84	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae8f…2d88backed Yes	23c	1,638$381 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,256.93	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	36c	1,595$568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,026.17	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	60c	1,573$937 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$937.35	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	74c	1,519$1,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.44	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	38c	1,500$577 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.42	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Yes	18c	1,484$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,213.52	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	35c	1,476$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$964.24	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	12c	1,463$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,284	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	19c	1,365$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,111.49	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	18c	1,319$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,082.99	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908e…89e9backed No	3c	1,314$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x525e…8498backed Yes	78c	1,280$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.1	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+194.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0308…a6f8backed Yes	79c	1,268$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.36	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0aec…74fcbacked Yes	66c	1,210$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.4	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	25c	1,206$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$906.36	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	41c	1,200$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$711.75	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	51c	1,169$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$568.51	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	11c	1,159$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,026.64	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	17c	1,156$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.32	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	30c	1,143$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$805.77	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	1,121$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,086.77	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd92f…a832backed Yes	35c	1,121$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$730.28	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	22c	1,093$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$857.44	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5424…f10dbacked Yes	21c	1,091$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$867.26	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+215.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	14c	1,089$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940.46	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes	43c	1,055$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$605.11	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	3c	1,050$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	24c	1,000$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$763	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491a…27ccbacked Yes	20c	1,000$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$803	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	25c	1,000$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	72c	996.6$717 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.19	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b13…2c26backed Yes	19c	996.57$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$803.03	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes	71c	990.13$705 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.43	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	37c	968.39$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$606.87	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	41c	963.99$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$565.91	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	34c	958$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$629.88	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	8c	931.46$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$858.88	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	78c	925.79$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.97	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	18c	917.51$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$752.51	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	34c	894$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590.04	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	25c	891.95$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$664.99	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	50c	885.67$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.84	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	28c	881.89$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$631.74	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	23c	862.73$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$664.94	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	18c	860.15$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$702.63	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes	26c	813.34$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$605.29	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event