Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2675e1533c3a7f11919c2fb610763f8a9cbc9ad4825b988855c2bd8487af7316

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $475,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $314,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $475,438 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	0c	50,725$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.18	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8e…4ad8backed Yes	0c	12,335$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	11,256$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	9,980$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	15c	3,517$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb303…205bbacked Yes	15c	3,500$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.01	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	5c	2,885$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd9a…796cbacked Yes	17c	2,863$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	3c	2,021$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	2,011$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,985$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.57	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	3c	1,600$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x376f…2bb7backed Yes	15c	1,600$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,455$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	2c	1,430$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.2	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	17c	1,400$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	15c	1,400$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	1,300$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.85	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a06…160abacked Yes	16c	1,269$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	11c	1,111$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.21	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2031…2325backed Yes	13c	1,002$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.26	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	-3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	15c	1,000$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.61	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	14c	1,000$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	11c	968.13$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.49	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	959.05$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8112…26acbacked Yes	4c	918.65$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	9c	803.12$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.83	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239a…8e55backed Yes	2c	787.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x018c…448abacked Yes	4c	770.42$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.4	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	12c	749.98$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	15c	699.99$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	14c	690.43$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes	16c	689.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.4	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd86…1f67backed Yes	17c	674.82$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.72	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…7ff4backed Yes	15c	659.35$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	11c	526.22$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	3c	506.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6faa…5a5bbacked Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…9008backed Yes	14c	500$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	12c	471.91$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	14c	399.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	4c	388.95$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes	7c	385.21$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.96	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	15c	381.8$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.27	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	14c	350$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	6c	332.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	13c	303.47$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.85	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	14c	302.32$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.83	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	9c	300$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	10c	299.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ce…a8b2backed Yes	17c	296.02$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e3…63fbbacked Yes	13c	292.31$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27e4…ff39backed Yes	4c	261.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86df…eb34backed Yes	17c	210$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x029b…5937backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	-14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39ba…d547backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x755b…f4f5backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe97backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	199.63$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.14	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14dd…9665backed Yes	15c	160$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe71d…cc61backed Yes	13c	156.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6498…1fc1backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e18…afc3backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e0…6510backed Yes	17c	148.44$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	13c	123.08$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6438…fadbbacked Yes	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes	18c	111.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a00…d9f7backed Yes	16c	102.09$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.73	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3e…eb6cbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf37b…ff02backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5450…bff8backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	129	20.9%27 W · 102 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33a…1e9fbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	99	26.3%26 W · 73 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb875…7da8backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	254	68.5%174 W · 80 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f82…a195backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd724…feadbacked Yes	15c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb7…1f79backed Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event