Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe88c4c46a4f3adf75597065d1e0186febf0459724d0223c33a24e9020cc26ba8

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,507,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $979,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,507,073 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	3c	216,592$6,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,879.84	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	108,809$3,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,737.3	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	10c	76,201$7,729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,729.29	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	48,888$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	8c	44,897$3,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,516.75	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	19c	28,981$5,387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,387.08	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	14c	15,939$2,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,194.32	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed Yes	6c	14,025$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.87	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	6c	12,342$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.42	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	1c	11,961$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.22	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	14c	11,431$1,579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,579.32	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	11,225$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.68	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	1c	9,800$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	11c	9,683$1,088 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,087.81	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	13c	9,135$1,164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,163.62	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	18c	8,530$1,545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,545.26	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bf5…46e4backed Yes	0c	7,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	19c	7,343$1,396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,395.6	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	7c	7,101$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.6	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	22c	6,793$1,462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,461.6	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fda…147ebacked Yes	9c	6,369$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	1c	5,685$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.42	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	10c	5,397$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.46	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	10c	5,344$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.73	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd92f…a832backed Yes	5c	5,166$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	71c	5,016$3,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,476.41	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	6c	3,918$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.68	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes	13c	3,831$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	3,732$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	9c	3,677$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.47	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	2c	3,500$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.6	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	3,320$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.11	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	1c	3,250$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	3,028$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.07	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	21c	3,027$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.2	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	3,011$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.82	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	15c	2,927$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.26	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	80c	2,681$2,138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.49	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No	80c	2,662$2,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$536.12	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	8c	2,604$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.84	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc4…089cbacked No	76c	2,539$1,917 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$621.63	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	44c	2,528$1,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,115.24	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	11c	2,509$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.52	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	15c	2,281$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.71	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	18c	2,249$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.77	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	9c	2,230$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.15	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	26c	2,178$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.43	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes	12c	2,148$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.43	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	3c	2,146$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18fc…2f91backed No	80c	2,126$1,697 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.27	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	30c	2,002$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.09	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…1e7fbacked Yes	8c	1,965$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	13c	1,963$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.3	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	14c	1,939$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.15	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed No	67c	1,938$1,299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$638.5	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	5c	1,855$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.52	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes	3c	1,821$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.4	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+91.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	9c	1,818$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.46	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed No	79c	1,703$1,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.63	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe97backed Yes	5c	1,646$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.55	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	26c	1,500$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	5c	1,500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.92	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	20c	1,492$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.11	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked No	75c	1,361$1,021 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$340.36	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+101.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	2c	1,270$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	18c	1,230$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.62	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	16c	1,227$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.32	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	13c	1,209$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.99	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d7…84e0backed No	77c	1,197$917 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.85	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	1,196$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.39	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	18c	1,184$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.27	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No	77c	1,171$901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.89	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	15c	1,151$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.79	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f5…78b7backed Yes	2c	1,149$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b13…2c26backed Yes	16c	1,120$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	20c	1,099$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.01	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5694…9baebacked Yes	3c	1,092$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.01	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d1…4069backed Yes	23c	1,086$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5239…f777backed Yes	27c	1,080$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b18…42ecbacked Yes	9c	1,073$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	19c	1,065$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe96…65acbacked Yes	24c	1,050$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.6	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1009…9062backed Yes	15c	1,040$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	27c	1,033$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.01	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe192…baccbacked Yes	15c	1,030$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed No	76c	1,025$783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.74	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac8…bbedbacked Yes	15c	1,020$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	10c	1,020$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe717…d380backed Yes	2c	1,012$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.48	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x598e…6aacbacked Yes	15c	1,010$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked No	69c	1,000$685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06df…0ae9backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	5c	999.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	980.49$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	7c	943.83$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.49	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes	17c	926.63$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.45	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked No	77c	866.45$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.2	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8169…0357backed Yes	16c	848.52$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	819.64$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.79	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event