Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbca537b8f38ed1d1f42795bbc722e946d291b24be19f5acda1c8eb6506ef29da

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $292,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $225,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,355 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	10,038$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.81	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	10,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	10,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	0c	6,824$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.47	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	8c	4,912$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.72	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	11c	3,500$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	2c	3,117$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.17	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	11c	3,000$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb303…205bbacked Yes	12c	2,900$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,814$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.47	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	5c	2,133$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19b…478dbacked Yes	10c	1,647$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.03	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	1c	1,473$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	1,433$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	13c	1,400$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,091$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	9c	999.99$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.83	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	14c	999.99$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	4c	947.86$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.45	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	9c	853.15$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.14	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d7…b96bbacked Yes	1c	780.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes	7c	720$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	13c	699.98$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	3c	514.62$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.08	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83e5…9751backed Yes	12c	499.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes	14c	494$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.16	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	14c	400$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe64f…6cc3backed Yes	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	15c	335.85$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	10c	330.75$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	7c	299.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb2b…3994backed Yes	13c	299.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	15c	270$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5205…8c98backed Yes	14c	240$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	5c	214.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…4f9fbacked Yes	14c	214.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	15c	211.76$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.76	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x755b…f4f5backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…7da8backed Yes	8c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	254	68.5%174 W · 80 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe97backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…eb34backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	14c	200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe98f…82ebbacked Yes	15c	166.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3a…03bebacked Yes	15c	136.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed Yes	9c	133.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	125$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe82d…a7abbacked Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79e9…91f5backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f82…a195backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef7…b8b0backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34e6…e673backed Yes	13c	93.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-77%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b75…ebd3backed Yes	12c	90$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event