Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46ca287656455e27ec2078758c2fd4c60bc4120c1927c7c078e3eedb6d3fb63

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $866,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $520,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $866,156 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	159,999$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	78,888$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	38,385$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.54	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	20,250$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.57	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	15,415$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.45	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	10,987$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.3	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4111…993cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1780…1260backed Yes	4c	6,975$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	2c	5,822$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.51	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	5,517$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.2	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	5c	5,008$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Yes	16c	4,872$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.33	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	3,994$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.04	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	3,533$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.52	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	10c	3,291$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	3,137$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5be1…45e3backed Yes	10c	2,836$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	2,832$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.92	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	2,776$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	2,718$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.4	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	2,341$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	9c	2,133$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.04	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…2599backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x376f…2bb7backed Yes	9c	2,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	1,953$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.4	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	5c	1,830$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.02	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,535$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.07	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	1,483$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.36	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	1,470$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.03	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,424$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.41	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	4c	1,406$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.17	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	1c	1,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	1,239$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.64	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	7c	1,200$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.6	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3067…b8e5backed Yes	7c	1,200$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.6	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	1,178$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…5431backed Yes	9c	1,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.96	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	4c	996.65$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.27	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	8c	991.37$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	11c	931.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	744.62$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.36	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	8c	643.85$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	10c	600$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	550$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	2c	501.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	7c	494.34$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	6c	482$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.19	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f7…2bf6backed Yes	5c	428.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	14cpaid	+205.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	9c	426.6$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	420$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	3c	419.48$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	5c	404.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cc6…8e7bbacked Yes	9c	400$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	349.73$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	8c	340$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	7c	322.06$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.49	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d70…f5bbbacked Yes	8c	319.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	12c	312.1$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.81	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes	9c	308.65$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.47	179	24.6%44 W · 135 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	6c	305$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.26	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	8c	300$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc52d…fa66backed Yes	10c	295.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e18…afc3backed Yes	8c	291.33$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x239a…8e55backed Yes	8c	250.08$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes	8c	249.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f53…49b0backed Yes	9c	232.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	9c	225.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcc61…6eedbacked Yes	9c	223.79$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	5c	221.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	9c	215.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6f…b30abacked Yes	8c	133.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bae…5199backed Yes	9c	119.47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7482…8464backed No	12c	115.95$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.88per pick	12cpaid	+762.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	262	24%63 W · 199 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4522…ff26backed Yes	11c	95.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event