Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b75d6d495cf6abac1757ba3831992264d0a05cf2ff199c1f8e78567b35cda9

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,606,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,198,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,606,226 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	150,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5ed9backed Yes	0c	123,490$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.49	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	58,728$5,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,042.28	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	48,887$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	0c	46,311$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.27	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	35,772$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.71	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	31,176$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.18	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	30,148$654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$654.04	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	28,569$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.4	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	14,607$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	14,343$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.89	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	13,900$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.22	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	13,413$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.18	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35cc…88c1backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x892c…46cfbacked Yes	1c	9,136$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	3cpaid	+177.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,285$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.44	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	4c	7,248$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.68	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	4c	6,391$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.52	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	5,895$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.47	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f79…2751backed Yes	0c	5,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	9c	5,320$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73e6…9e49backed Yes	1c	5,306$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	10c	5,007$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d618backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a2…1492backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	0c	4,971$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	4,767$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.83	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	4,242$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	1c	4,090$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	4,040$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	3c	3,006$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.01	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	9c	3,000$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf2…5803backed Yes	0c	2,843$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	0c	2,800$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	12c	2,789$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	7c	2,779$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.9	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	9c	2,300$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.4	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	2,176$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.69	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	2,100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked Yes	4c	2,059$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	6c	2,000$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	2,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	10c	1,925$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	11c	1,912$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.9	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	1,646$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.86	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	1,400$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	10c	1,379$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.78	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd2…4d2fbacked Yes	7c	1,346$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	11c	1,300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.9	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	6c	1,271$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.44	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	16c	1,265$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	6c	1,195$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.28	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4835…c692backed Yes	7c	1,182$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.69	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	1,180$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.86	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	9c	1,161$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.34	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7dd…dbbdbacked Yes	2c	1,154$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	8c	1,113$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	2c	1,079$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	6c	1,075$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.72	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	3c	1,020$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.97	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	10c	1,012$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes	10c	1,003$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd0a…a897backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	9c	988$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.94	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	11c	879.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	7c	850$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.5	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	4c	839.68$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.66	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes	2c	813.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	8c	700$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.71	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	7c	675.18$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.28	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	2c	666.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xece9…81ffbacked Yes	6c	657.45$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.47	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes	9c	637.29$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.7	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	5c	629.67$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.39	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	9c	610.94$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	9c	600$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	14c	600$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.79	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	586.25$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.02	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	550$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	6c	534.13$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.41	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	2c	513.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes	6c	499.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	3c	499.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc61…6eedbacked Yes	8c	487.49$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.73	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc40…c795backed Yes	3c	439.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	10c	428.96$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb1…09c8backed Yes	6c	400.62$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	5c	399.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	10c	390$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.55	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Yes	7c	388.72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.27	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	3c	388.43$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	7c	371.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	9c	368.55$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	5c	359.89$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.38	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	9c	339.79$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.47	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event